One of the key tasks in the economy is forecasting the economic agents' expectations of the future values of economic variables using mathematical models. The behavior of mathematical models can be irregular, including chaotic, which reduces their predictive power. In this paper, we study the regimes of behavior of two economic models and identify irregular dynamics in them. Using these models as an example, we demonstrate the effectiveness of evolutionary algorithms and the continuous deep Q-learning method in combination with Pyragas control method for deriving a control action that stabilizes unstable periodic trajectories and suppresses chaotic dynamics. We compare qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the model's dynamics before and after applying control and verify the obtained results by numerical simulation. Proposed approach can improve the reliability of forecasting and tuning of the economic mechanism to achieve maximum decision-making efficiency.
翻译:经济的主要任务之一是利用数学模型预测经济行为主体对经济变量未来价值的期望。数学模型的行为可能是不规律的,包括混乱,从而降低预测力。在本文中,我们研究两个经济模型的行为制度,并找出其中的不正常动态。我们以这些模型为例,展示进化算法和连续的深层次Q-学习方法的有效性,并结合Pyragas控制方法,以得出稳定不稳定的周期轨迹和抑制混乱动态的控制行动。我们比较模型在应用控制之前和之后的动态质量和数量特点,并通过数字模拟核实获得的结果。拟议方法可以提高经济机制预测和调整的可靠性,从而实现最高决策效率。