A unified nonparametric fiducial approach to interval-censored data

Censored data, where the event time is partially observed, are challenging for survival probability estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel nonparametric fiducial approach to interval-censored data, including right-censored, current status, case II censored, and mixed case censored data. The proposed approach leveraging a simple Gibbs sampler has a useful property of being "one size fits all", i.e., the proposed approach automatically adapts to all types of non-informative censoring mechanisms. As shown in the extensive simulations, the proposed fiducial confidence intervals significantly outperform existing methods in terms of both coverage and length. In addition, the proposed fiducial point estimator has much smaller estimation errors than the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator. Furthermore, we apply the proposed method to Austrian rubella data and a study of hemophiliacs infected with the human immunodeficiency virus. The strength of the proposed fiducial approach is not only estimation and uncertainty quantification but also its automatic adaptation to a variety of censoring mechanisms.