In this paper, we use SEIR equations to make predictions for the number of mortality due to COVID-19 in \.Istanbul. Using excess mortality method, we find the number of mortality for the previous three waves in 2020 and 2021. We show that the predictions of our model is consistent with number of moralities for each wave. Furthermore, we predict the number of mortality for the second wave of 2021. We also extend our analysis for Germany, Italy and Turkey to compare the basic reproduction number $R_0$ for Istanbul. Finally, we calculate the number of infected people in Istanbul for herd immunity.
翻译：在本文中,我们使用SEIR方程式来预测在\.Istanbul的COVID-19导致的死亡率数字。我们使用超额死亡率方法发现2020年和2021年前三波的死亡率数字。我们显示,我们模型的预测与每波的道德程度数字一致。此外,我们预测2021年第二波的死亡率。我们还扩大了对德国、意大利和土耳其的分析,以比较伊斯坦布尔的基本生殖数R_0美元。最后,我们计算了伊斯坦布尔的感染者人数,以获得牛群免疫。
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