Modern financial market dynamics warrant detailed analysis due to their significant impact on the world. This, however, often proves intractable; massive numbers of agents, strategies and their change over time in reaction to each other leads to difficulties in both theoretical and simulational approaches. Notable work has been done on strategy dominance in stock markets with respect to the ratios of agents with certain strategies. Perfect knowledge of the strategies employed could then put an individual agent at a consistent trading advantage. This research reports the effects of imperfect oracles on the system - dispensing noisy information about strategies - information which would normally be hidden from market participants. The effect and achievable profits of a singular trader with access to an oracle were tested exhaustively with previously unexplored factors such as changing order schedules. Additionally, the effect of noise on strategic information was traced through its effect on trader efficiency.
翻译:现代金融市场动态因其对世界的重大影响,需要进行详细分析。然而,这往往证明是棘手的;大量的代理商、战略及其随时间变化而相互反应,在理论和模拟方法上都造成了困难。关于股票市场的战略主导地位,已经做了一些值得注意的工作,与某些战略的代理商比率有关。对所采用的战略的完全了解可以使单个代理商处于一贯的贸易优势。这项研究报告了不完善的手法对系统的影响――散布关于战略的吵闹信息――通常会向市场参与者隐瞒这些信息。一个单一交易商,如果能够接触到一个甲骨文,其影响和可实现的利润就会在理论上和模拟方法上都受到彻底的检验,而以前没有探讨过的因素,例如改变订单时间表。此外,噪音对战略信息的影响通过其对贸易效率的影响而追溯到。