Recently, several researchers have claimed that conclusions obtained from a Bayes factor (or the posterior odds) may contradict those obtained from Bayesian posterior estimation. In this short paper, we wish to point out that no such "incompatibility" exists if one is willing to consistently define one's priors and posteriors. The key for compatibility is that the (implied) prior model odds used for testing are the same as those used for estimation. Our recommendation is simple: If one reports a Bayes factor comparing two models, then one should also report posterior estimates which appropriately acknowledge the uncertainty with regards to which of the two models is correct.
翻译:最近,几位研究人员声称,从贝耶斯系数(或事后几率)得出的结论可能与从贝耶斯后方估计得出的结论相矛盾。在本简短的论文中,我们希望指出,如果人们愿意一贯地界定自己的前身和后方,就不会存在这种“不相容性 ” 。 兼容性的关键在于用于测试的(隐含的)先前模型概率与用于估算的相同。 我们的建议很简单:如果报告一个比对两个模型的贝耶斯系数,那么,我们也应该报告后方估计数,这些估计数适当承认两种模型中哪一个正确无误的不确定性。