Grapevine budbreak is a key phenological stage of seasonal development, which serves as a signal for the onset of active growth. This is also when grape plants are most vulnerable to damage from freezing temperatures. Hence, it is important for winegrowers to anticipate the day of budbreak occurrence to protect their vineyards from late spring frost events. This work investigates deep learning for budbreak prediction using data collected for multiple grape cultivars. While some cultivars have over 30 seasons of data others have as little as 4 seasons, which can adversely impact prediction accuracy. To address this issue, we investigate multi-task learning, which combines data across all cultivars to make predictions for individual cultivars. Our main result shows that several variants of multi-task learning are all able to significantly improve prediction accuracy compared to learning for each cultivar independently.
翻译:葡萄芽芽是季节性发育的一个关键动物学阶段,是开始积极增长的信号。这也是葡萄植物最容易受到冷冻温度破坏的时候。 因此,葡萄种植者必须预测初发之日,以保护葡萄园免受春末冻冻事件的影响。 这项工作利用为多种葡萄栽培品种收集的数据调查关于芽芽预测的深层次学习。 虽然一些栽培者有30多个季节的其他数据,只有4个季节,这可能会对预测的准确性产生不利影响。 为了解决这个问题,我们调查多任务学习,它将所有栽培者的数据结合起来,为个别栽培者作出预测。我们的主要结果显示,多种任务学习的几种变种都能够大大提高预测的准确性,而每个栽培品种独立学习的准确性则可以大大提高预测的准确性。