基于网络社群的网络舆情演化分析及突发事件预警机制研究

项目名称： 基于网络社群的网络舆情演化分析及突发事件预警机制研究

项目编号： No.71261025

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 刘继

作者单位： 新疆财经大学

项目金额： 38.5万元

中文摘要： 网络舆情管理是新时期文化建设和创新社会管理的重要内容之一，把握网络舆情发展态势和建立突发事件预警机制是地区长治久安亟待解决的课题。网络事件和网民观点在网络社群上不断演化，容易诱发群体行为突发事件。本课题在社会用户网络和舆情事件网络的基础上，构建网络舆情演化体系，提高舆情分析和和预警的效率。主要探讨网络社群内的热点主题发现，利用网络链接预测方法分析舆情信息在社群内和社群间的传播规律。揭示网络社群的动态演化规律，建立基于网络社群的网络舆情动态演化模型，分析与预测网络事件的演化趋势。将网络社群与云计算结合起来，建立基于云统计的舆情挖掘平台，提高舆情分析的时间效率和中间计算结果的存储效率。建立人机协同的网络舆情预警机制，及时遏止舆情事态向群体行为转化，增强突发事件预判效能，为政府相关部门提供决策支持。

中文关键词： 网络舆情；演化分析；网络社群；预警机制；云统计

英文摘要： The administration of network public opinion is one of the vital components associated with cultural construction and innovative social management in the new era. Therefore, it is an urgent project to get comprehensive understanding of public opinion evolvement on the internet and construct an early-warning mechanism, which is crucial to the regional lasting stability and durable peace. While network events and Netizen's opinion develop in the network community, there is a strong probability of emergent collective behavior. This project is aimed to build the system of Internet public opinion evolvement and to enhance the efficiency of opinion analysis and early-warning on the basis of social network and event network. The research work will first deal with the hotspot discovery in network community and then analyze law of public opinion spreading within and between network communities by link prediction. Furthermore, in order to examine and forecast the evolving trend of network events, the dynamic development of network communities will be revealed, and by which the dynamic evolving models of public opinion will be established. Meanwhile, the project will combine the network community and cloud computing, build public opinion mining interface by the means of cloud statistics and thus enhance the efficiency of o

英文关键词： network public opinion；evolution analysis；network community；early warning mechanism；cloud statistics