京津冀地区复杂地形下孤立对流风暴下山增强模型研究

项目名称： 京津冀地区复杂地形下孤立对流风暴下山增强模型研究

项目编号： No.41305041

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 肖现

作者单位： 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 为了获得在复杂地形下,北京乃至京津冀地区对流风暴传播下山的客观定性定量的演变规律，探索北京至京津冀地区零星对流风暴在平原地区突发增强机制，提高精细化预报的准确性，需要就北京地区热、动力场结构，尤其是局地冷池结构和对流风暴三维结构的相互作用对对流风暴传播下山的影响问题开展研究。本工作通过对京津冀地区多年汛期高时空分辨率的自动站、风廓线资料和雷达回波演变关系的统计分析，得到该地区在典型天气形势下，风暴传播下山成功率和反演区域热力、动力因素分布的关系。在此基础上，就天气背景相似而生消结果不同的对流风暴个例，利用雷达资料四维变分技术和云尺度模式进行模拟分析，对比不同个例局地冷池演变情况，从对流风暴雷达回波与局地冷池相互作用和相互影响的角度，揭示北京至京津冀长期存在的动力、热力分布不均匀结构对对流风暴传播所起到的关键作用，从而建立基于多部新一代雷达和四维变分同化的京津冀对流风暴下山概念模型

中文关键词： 雷达观测；概念模型；四维变分；风暴；复杂地形

英文摘要： To achieve the objective analysis of the qualitative and quantitative effects of thunderstorms spreading from Mountains to Plains in the conditions of complex topography, to acquire the intensifying effect of isolated storms in metropolis the metropolitan area around of Beijing, Tianjing and Shijiangzhuang City, and to improve the precise precision of the prediction level, it is needed necessary that we conduct doing researches on the relations and inter-action between of the cool pool on the plains and the storm structure andstructure, and on the effcteffect of them on upon storms spreading from Mountains to plains. The work is preliminarily based on statistically analysis long-term meteorological data, namely a boundary layer wind profiler , the auto weather stations and radar echoes, in order to acquire the relation of the success rate of storms which spreads spreading from mountains to plains and the distribution of thermo-dynamical field in under the typical weather situation in that area. On the base of it, compared Compared with different the kinds of evolvement of local cool pool, it is aimed to expose at exposing the effect on the storm spreading mechanism , to set up and therefore setting up concept models in metropolis of for the metropolitan area around Beijing, Tianjing and Shijiangzhuang based

英文关键词： radar；concept model；4d VAR；storms；complex terrain