气候变化下冰冻圈多相态水体转换及其对径流的影响-以塔里木河源区为例

项目名称： 气候变化下冰冻圈多相态水体转换及其对径流的影响-以塔里木河源区为例

项目编号： No.41301067

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 李晶

作者单位： 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

项目金额： 26万元

中文摘要： 冰冻圈的一个显著特征是多相态水体间的转换。冰冻圈水体在不同相态间的转换带来相关的资源和环境效应。以塔里木河源区的科其喀尔冰川流域为观测流域,通过对冰川消融、物质平衡、能量交换等过程以及流域径流的观测和分析,结合冰雪表面参数遥感反演建立冰川消融参数化方法。在此基础上构建冰川物质平衡模型并与流域分布式水文模型SWAT模型进行耦合,建立适合进行冰雪区多相态水转换与径流模拟的水文模型。利用有较好数据基础的台兰河和昆马力克河对模型进行优化改进，率定相关参数。以多气候情景数据为输入，以分布式水文模型为手段，模拟未来30-50年气候变化情景下的阿克苏河流域冰雪径流变化过程，定量描述流域冰雪区水体的转换过程及其对出山径流的影响。

中文关键词： 冰雪消融；冰川表面能量平衡；冰雪径流；气候变化；水文模型

英文摘要： A significant feature of cryosphere is phase transformation of water. Cryospheric water changing in different phase lead to related resources and environmental effect. Based on the glaciohydrological and glaciometeorological observations on Koxkar glacier located on the source region of Tarim river basin, combined with remote sensing data,a parametric method of glacier melt has been established. On the basis of the construction of glacier mass balance model coupled with the distributed hydrological model SWAT model, a cryospheric distributed hydrological model which is suitable for phase transformation of water has been constructed. By using a good dataset acquired in Tailan river basin and Kumlike river basin, the model has been optimized to make good choice of relevant parameters value and improve its simulating ability. Taking the climate scenario data as input, by means of the improved distributed hydrological model, the impact of climate change over the next 30 to 50 years on the runoff of Akesu river could be simulated. The runoff from snow and ice could be quantitative description and their impacts on the watershed runoff could be quantitative also.

英文关键词： ice and snow-melt；glacier surface energy balance；ice and snow-melt runoff；climate change；hydrological model