长程相关性和趋势的相互作用及在地学问题中的应用

项目名称： 长程相关性和趋势的相互作用及在地学问题中的应用

项目编号： No.11201396

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 周煜

作者单位： 湘潭大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 本项目将研究长程相关性和趋势的精确估计，他们的相互作用以及在实际地学问题中的应用。具体来说，我们将研究i) 如何准确估计长度较短的、含有白噪声成分的以及周期性趋势的数据的长程相关性；ii) 不同趋势检验方法的侧重点；iii) 长程相关数据所具有的不同分布以及多尺度现象对不同趋势检验方法的影响；iv) 综合上述理论分析结果在实际地学问题，即全球暖化和旱涝灾害分析，中在考虑长程相关性和趋势的相互作用下对他们进行准确估计并考虑其时空分布特性。近年来，全球暖化和日益频繁的旱涝灾害已经受到越来越多的关注，对相关过程的长程相关性和趋势进行细致的分析将为我们了解相关过程的结构、动力学特性和未来变化趋势提供很大的帮助。但是现有的研究往往忽略了两者之间的相互作用。本课题将综合考虑长程相关性和趋势的相互作用来对系统分析气温和旱涝灾害的指标中蕴含的动力学特性和变化趋势以期待为相关政策制定提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 长程相关性；趋势；相互作用；全球变暖；地震

英文摘要： This research project aims at the assessment, interaction of long-range correlation and trends, and the application in geoscience problems. Specifically, we'll focus on i) the assessment of the long-range correlation of data with short length, white noise component, and periodic components; ii) the focus of different assessment methods to trends; iii) the effects of different distribution the data followed and that of multi-scaling behaviors of studied data on the trend assessment; iv) the estimation of long-range correlation and trends of real-life geoscience problems, e.g. global warming and the analysis of drought and flood, and their spatio-temporal distribution taking into consideration the interaction of long-range correlation and trends. These two geoscience problems recently draw increasing attentions. It is undoubtedly that the elaborate investigation of the long-range correlation and trends would greatly benefit the understanding of the relevant processes. However, the researchers generally study them separately, which would lead to the biased results. In order to provide more scientific information to facilitate the relevant policies making, this project proposes a comprehensive study of the long-range correlation and trends with taking their interdependence into account to uncover the natural dynamic

英文关键词： long-range correlation；trends；interaction；global warming；earthquakes