我国非常规油气开发技术工程化实现的投资激励策略研究

项目名称： 我国非常规油气开发技术工程化实现的投资激励策略研究

项目编号： No.71473193

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 郭菊娥

作者单位： 西安交通大学

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 为又快又好开发我国非常规油气资源，本项目探究非常规油气开发技术工程化实现的不确定性因素、技术学习形态、行业技术学习曲线和投资主体激励等问题。（1）基于非常规油气开发技术及其工程化实现的国内外实际，采用扎根、事件和Bayes统计推断等方法，凝练不同非常规油气种类技术工程化实现的不确定性程度与技术学习形态（创新技术学习形态、增量技术学习形态及成熟技术学习形态）联系的特征。（2）收集国内外不同非常规油气种类开发工程项目技术学习曲线，利用多元Meta-analysis及Bayes统计估计，测算不同非常规油气开发行业技术学习曲线与投资需求，利用实物期权博弈模型测算投资主体进入时序和投资边界条件。（3）基于技术学习形态、行业技术学习曲线等设计阶梯递减多维投资激励策略，利用实物期权博弈模型测算开发投资主体选择领先或跟随投资的边界条件，为国家设计阶梯递减投资激励策略提供依据。

中文关键词： 非常规油气；技术工程化；不确定性；技术学习形态；投资激励

英文摘要： Aiming to exploit Chinese domestic unconventional petroleum resources both rapidly and efficiently, this project delves into related problems such as uncertainty in engineering implementation of technique, technology learning type, technology learning curve at industrial level, investing-encourage strategy, etc. (1)Based on the current situation of technology of unconventional petroleum resources and its engineering implementation at home and abroad, this project analyzes the relationship between technology learning types (revolutionary technology learning type, incremental technology learning type and existing technology learning type) and the degree of uncertainties of different techniques by utilizing the grounded theory, the event study method and Bayes statistics. (2)By collecting international technology learning curves in different kinds of unconventional oil and gas resources, this project estimates domestic technological learning curves and the investment demand; calculates the boundary conditions and best timing for investment based on real option game model, multiple Meta-analysis and Bayes statistical estimation methods. (3)We intend to propose ladder-descending multidimensional incentive strategies based on the technique learning types and the industrial technology learning curves. By using the real option game model, we would also provide the boundary conditions of the investors' stratigy, either choosing the leading strategy or following strategy. Above all, this project serves as the cornerstone for our nation to design ladder-descending multidimensional investing-ecouragement strategies.

英文关键词： unconventional oil and gas;technique engineering;uncertainty;technology learning type;investing encouragement