耦合CA-MAS的海岸带生态安全空间预警与功能分区智能优化

项目名称： 耦合CA-MAS的海岸带生态安全空间预警与功能分区智能优化

项目编号： No.41301418

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 艾彬

作者单位： 中山大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 海岸带是国土空间陆海纵深的关键纽带，是开发海洋资源、发展海洋经济的重要依托，在生态安全框架下优化海岸带功能区布局对促进和保障人类社会可持续发展具有重要而深远的意义。本项目以我国广东省海岸带为研究案例，基于复杂系统理论，采用空间分析、地理过程模拟及空间智能优化等关键技术手段，建立海岸带生态安全空间预警与功能分区优化的研究框架，为实施陆海统筹规划总体开发布局提供技术支撑和决策参考。研究内容包括：通过分析海岸带生态安全状态变化趋势，耦合CA和MAS的分区模型模拟大区域复杂环境下生态用地演化格局，从生态功能服务角度进行生态安全空间预警；进一步结合空间规划目标和生态安全控制约束，构建海岸带功能分区空间智能优化模型，引入反映空间集聚片区集中规则和规划决策偏好,改善遗传算法的适应度函数，动态加入功能区最小规模约束，研究可解决多目标下的主体功能优化分区问题，获取不同规划目标下的海岸带功能区优化布局方案。

中文关键词： 元胞自动机；蚁群智能模型；土地利用分区；生态安全；海岸带

英文摘要： Under the background of integrating terrestrial and marine planning, the coastal zone as the ecologically sensitive area linking up land and sea is significant for developing marine economics. It is important to maintain ecological security and properly layout the main function zones, this serves as the basic premise of sustainable development in coastal area. In this project, selecting the coastal zone of Guangdong Province along the South China Sea as sample, the research will well reveal anthropic influence on the coastal area by combining such intelligent techniques as spatial analysis, geographic process simulation and spatial intelligent optimization. This can provide scientific information for making spatial planning of coastal zone. The specific objectives and main contents of this project can be concluded as follows: (1) Monitoring the spatio-temporal change pattern of ecological land, and water environment of near shore. Landscape indices and the "Pressure-State-Influence-Response" model will be further used to discover the variation process of ecological security state. (2) Establishing a novel coupled CA and MAS model respectively based on geographically weighted regression (GWR) method and Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) architecture. In the model, local transition rules will be obtained considering

英文关键词： cellular automata；ACO；land use zone；ecological security；coastal zone