基于遥感和空间分析的潮间带生物地貌系统稳态转换理论实证与预测研究

项目名称： 基于遥感和空间分析的潮间带生物地貌系统稳态转换理论实证与预测研究

项目编号： No.41501116

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 王晨

作者单位： 生态环境部卫星环境应用中心

项目金额： 24万元

中文摘要： 在全球气候变化和人类活动影响下，滨海湿地退化已成为全球性问题。由于湿地植被具有重要的服务价值，研究其与光滩之间的转化机理，实现对二者间转化的预测，对可持续管理和保护滨海湿地具有重要意义。已有研究指出上述转化可能是多稳态之间的转换，然而相关的实证研究十分有限。本项目旨在基于多时相遥感和GIS空间分析技术，证明现实中潮间带生物地貌系统中多稳态的存在，并应用该理论构建模型，对植被和光滩之间转化的空间格局进行预测。本项目将通过检验双峰分布等判断依据验证多稳态在潮间带的存在；通过研究高程、植被生物量等变量空间格局的相互关系验证生物地貌反馈作用并建立概念模型；基于单因子阈值和多元统计建模，对植被和光滩之间转化的空间格局进行预测。该研究顺应多学科交叉发展的趋势，将地貌、生态和遥感GIS的概念方法充分结合起来加深对潮间带植被与光滩之间转化的认识，为滨海湿地的保护提供依据，具有重要的科学价值和应用价值。

中文关键词： 潮间带；海岸带植被；遥感监测；地理信息系统；生物地貌

英文摘要： The degradation of coastal wetlands is a global environment problem under the influence of climate change and extensive human activities. The understanding and prediction of the shifts between vegetated marshes and bare mudflats is of great importance for ecosystem management and restoration, considering the ecosystem services provided by tidal marsh ecosystems. Vegetated marshes and bare mudflats have been suggested to be alternative stable states in intertidal ecosystems. However, the empirical evidences for the theory and the prediction study of state shifts between vegetated marshes and bare flats are very limited. This project aims to test the hypothesis empirically and to predict the location of state shifts between bare intertidal flats and vegetated marshes based on remote sensing and GIS. Several empirical evidences are tested such as clear boundary, bimodal distribution, abrupt shift, threshold behavior and hysteresis effect. The mechanism causing alternative stable sates, i.e., the biogeomorphic feedbacks, are also tested by studying the spatial relationship between elevation, biomass, sediment deposition, currents and waves. Models are built based on the thresholds of single factors and the multivariate statistics to predict the shifts between vegetated marshes and bare flats, and validated with data from different period or different location. This study is an interdiscipline research combining the theory and methods of geomorphology, ecology, remote sensing and GIS to improve the understanding and prediction of the shift between vegetated marshes and bare flats, which is of important scientific significance and practical value. This study may serve as a scientific basis for the management and restoration of tidal marshes and their important ecosystem services.

英文关键词： Intertidal zone;Coastal vegetation;Remote sensing monitoring;GIS;Biogeomorphology