交通运输能源消耗影响因素分析及建模研究

项目名称： 交通运输能源消耗影响因素分析及建模研究

项目编号： No.61503022

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 武旭

作者单位： 北京交通大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 我国制定了一系列交通运输节能政策却没能遏制住该行业能耗的快速增长，对交通能耗影响因素辩识不准确，政策不对症是重要原因。识别交通运输能耗的各项影响因素及其规律，是政策制定的关键科学技术问题。本项目拟从国家和区域两个层面对交通能耗影响因素展开研究。首先，建立基于“拓展的Kaya-LMDI-Shapley”国家层面交通运输能耗影响因子分解模型，识别国家层面交通能耗影响因素变化规律。其次，建立基于“STIRPAT的静态&动态面板”区域交通运输能耗影响因素分析模型，并采用面板聚类与空间聚类相结合的方法进行区域划分，识别区域层面交通能耗影响因素变化规律及特点。最后，基于复杂适应系统理论，建立Multi-Agent的交通运输节能政策仿真实验模型，对交通节能政策进行仿真评价。项目的预期研究成果可为制定有效的交通运输节能政策及设定合理的交通节能目标提供科学依据，辅助交通运输节能政策决策者改善政策执行效果。

中文关键词： 交通运输；能源；影响因素；建模；仿真

英文摘要： A series of energy policy carried out in China have little effect on restraining rapid growth of transportation energy consumption. One main reason is that policy maker can’t accurately identify the causes of transport energy consumption problem, and the policy is not appropriate for current situation. One key challenge for policy maker is that correctly understanding the factors and laws of transport energy consumption. For the unbalance of economic development of China, the characteristic of transport energy consumption is significantly different among regions. Hence, this research intends to study impact of energy consumption factors from views of both national and regional aspect. Firstly, an energy consumption index decomposition model based on extended Kaya-LMDI-Shapley method is built at national level, and use this model to understand the patterns of energy consumption. Secondly, based on the STIRPAT static & dynamic panel, a regional model of energy consumption index analysis is build. Regions are divided by using method of integrating panel clustering and spatial clustering, and using this model to analyze regional energy consumption pattern. Finally, based on complex systems theory, an agent-based simulator is presented to evaluate transport energy policy inputs and outputs efficiency. This research is intended to assist transport policy makers, and improve the effectiveness of the resulting policies，and support the design of policies to achieve energy saving target.

英文关键词： transport;energy;factors;modeling;simulator