基于参数不确定性的热防护设计方法研究

项目名称： 基于参数不确定性的热防护设计方法研究

项目编号： No.11272107

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 解维华

作者单位： 哈尔滨工业大学

项目金额： 86万元

中文摘要： 传统的飞行器热防护设计一般是基于冗余设计的思想，常常通过增加一定的安全系数来考虑实际存在的一些不确定性因素的影响。但给出的热防护设计对于飞行器的结构效率和可靠性而言可能不是最优的方案，究其原因主要是对于设计中的一些不确定性因素认识不清。本研究将深入分析热防护设计中的不确定性因素，通过试验和数值方法研究参数不确定性的表征方法，分析不确定性的来源与形成机制，建立基于参数不确定性的热防护表征模型，研究不确定性对热防护热响应的影响机制，基于试验测试研究热防护可靠性分析理论和方法，研究考虑不确定性的热防护优化设计方法。从而充分认知热防护设计中的不确定性，给出一种新的热防护设计方法，为有效提高我国飞行器热防护的整体设计水平和可靠性评价奠定理论基础。

中文关键词： 热防护；设计方法；不确定性；；

英文摘要： In traditional thermal protection system (TPS) sizing, uncertainty is usually taken account of by using factors of safety, which is conservative and thus not optimum for structural and reliability efficiency. A better approach can be arrived by covering the knowledge gaps in uncertainty prediction. Hence, the first part of this work focuses on characterizing these uncertainties and identifying the source and the formation of them numerically and experimentally. Then the TPS response with uncertainty will be modeled, based on which we are supposed to study the role of uncertainty in TPS design. By performing reliability based design, an effort will be made to give a more explicit method of TPS sizing compared to traditional method. Finally we will discuss the method of including future tests in TPS design and the impact it brought. In summary, this work is dedicated to uncover the mechanism of uncertainty in TPS response, and establish a new design method of TPS considering uncertainty, which will contribute to mature the technology of our nation in TPS overall design and reliability evaluation as we hope.

英文关键词： thermal protection systems；designing method；uncertainty；；