不对称PPP模式的风暴潮灾害保险合作机制研究

项目名称： 不对称PPP模式的风暴潮灾害保险合作机制研究

项目编号： No.71503238

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 郑慧

作者单位： 中国海洋大学

项目金额： 17万元

中文摘要： 本项目围绕多发性风暴潮灾害的风险分散问题，依托管理学、海洋科学、保险学等基础理论，探讨权责划分不对称的PPP模式下风暴潮灾害保险合作机制。从风暴潮灾害自然风险特征及其可保属性出发，建立课题研究的理论框架。据此，首先依据风暴潮灾害致灾损失链，对灾害损失进行分类测度，建立赔付能力度量模型，完成现有灾害损失赔付能力计算；其次，建立联盟博弈模型，求解风暴潮灾害保险中政府、商业性保险公司、投保人的利益分配与均衡参与策略，并计算Shapley值明确灾害保险供给方（政府、保险公司）的合作分配方案。最后，以满足基本风险分散要求为基线、使用风险参数进行动态调整为宗旨，从免赔额与起赔点两方面，设计出依托递进式损失分散责任、具备道德风险与违约风险防控功能的保险赔付触发方案。本项目的研究成果可为海洋灾害保险机制建立提供理论探索和应用依据，从而实现我国海洋灾害损失救助实践的长期性、功能性和科学性。

中文关键词： 风暴潮；风险管理；灾害保险；公私合作伙伴模式；联盟博弈

英文摘要： Relying on management, ocean science, insurance and other basic theory ,this project aimed at risk diversification of storm surge happened frequently and studied the asymmetric public-private partnership(PPP) model of storm surge disaster insurance cooperation mechanism. The theoretical framework was given according to natural characteristics and insurability of storm surge. On this basis, the project identified the disaster losses and established loss evaluation models containing direct losses and indirect losses, then calculated the insurance capacity. Secondly, it solved equilibrium cooperation strategies among government, insurance company and policy-holder, furthermore pointed out the suppliers' optimal collocation between government and insurance company by Shapley value. Finally, with the basic requirements for risk diversification and dynamically adjusting, it designed progressive compensation- triggering-plan focused on deductible and excess, with the purpose of preventing and controlling moral hazard and default risk. The research achievements could provide theoretical exploration for marine disaster insurance mechanism and application basis, and promote the rescuing of marine disaster more scientific, functional and operational.

英文关键词： storm surge;risk management;disaster insurance;public-private partnerships;coalition game