干旱区典型流域极端洪水时空演变与预测研究

项目名称： 干旱区典型流域极端洪水时空演变与预测研究

项目编号： No.41301039

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 黄粤

作者单位： 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所

项目金额： 26万元

中文摘要： 干旱区极端洪水事件频率和强度的增加使区域水资源安全面临严峻挑战。然而针对极端洪水演变，多集中在时空变化的定性或经验统计分析层次，缺乏基于机理过程的极端洪水演变模型和模拟预测研究。本项目拟选择极端洪水典型的开都河流域为研究区，基于长序列站点观测数据和全球气候模式输出，借助改进的水文模型，研究气候变化下极端洪水的时空演变特征和趋势。首先利用历史观测气象水文数据，用趋势分析和频率分析等方法，分析1956-2012年流域极端洪水时空变化特征；对申请者已建立的S_VHM模型改进融雪算法和增加冰川消融模块，构建干旱区极端洪水预报模型，用2站点长期径流观测数据和4站点短期降水径流关系实验验证模型；利用改进的S_VHM模型，依据多个全球气候模式在IPCC SRES不同排放情景下对未来气候的集合预测结果，预估未来气候变化对干旱区典型流域极端洪水的影响。本研究有助于加深气候变化下干旱区极端洪水形成机理的认识。

中文关键词： 极端水文事件；水文模型；洪水预报；气候变化；

英文摘要： Increased frequency and intensity of extreme flood in arid land is becoming the marjor chanllenge to the water resource security of the region. For the spatial and temporal evolution of extreme floods, most researches have remained on the stage of qualitative or focused on statistic analysis of historical records, the researches of extreme flood evolution model and prediction which are on the base of mechanism and process are almost absent. The project, therefore, plans to select the Kaidu Watershed as a typical study area, by using historical observed data, investigate characteristics and development trends of extreme flood evolution with the help of hydrological model. At first, based on the daily meteorology and runoff data, spatio-temporal features of the extreme flood variation will be analysed by employing such methods as trend analysis and frequency analysis; improve the established S_VHM model by modifing snowmelt algorithm and adding a independent glaciermelting module, the model will be validated by observed data from 2 long-term hydrological stations and 4 short-term experiment stations; in addition,the improved S_VHM model will be applyed to predict extreme floods from 2040 to 2099 by using the projected future tempreture, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from multi-GCMs under IPCC SRES

英文关键词： hydrological extremes；hydrological model；flood prediction；climate change；