黑河流域高时空分辨率未来气候变化情景模拟与不确定性评估

项目名称： 黑河流域高时空分辨率未来气候变化情景模拟与不确定性评估

项目编号： No.91425304

项目类型： 重大研究计划

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 熊喆

作者单位： 中国科学院大气物理研究所

项目金额： 390万元

中文摘要： 未来气候情景是黑河流域生态水文集成研究的关键输入之一。高时空分辨率的黑河流域区域气候模拟及其不确定性估计对于黑河流域生态水文模拟质量具有决定性作用。本项目拟利用黑河流域重大研究计划现有的观测成果，优化现有的黑河流域高时空分辨率区域气候模式，提高模式对历史和未来气候变化情景下气候变化的模拟能力，特别是降水的定量评估水平；基于CMIP5中RCP4.5情景下多个全球气候模式模拟输出的结果开展动力/统计降尺度长期集合模拟，发展集合预估的贝叶斯理论与方法，降低区域气候模拟和预估的不确定性，提高黑河流域未来情景预估的可信度，为黑河流域生态水文集成研究提供过去1980-2010年和未来2020-2070年RCP 4.5情景下高时空分辨率高质量的气候变化数据，将有助于黑河流域适应生态水文变化的社会经济情景设定，并将提升社会经济及生态水文优化调控决策的科学性。

中文关键词： 黑河流域；未来气候情景；不确定性；高分辨率；区域气候模拟

英文摘要： Future climate scenarios are the key inputs for the research programme titled “Integrated of the Eco-hydrological Processes in the Heihe River Basin” supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China. High temporal-spatial-resolution of regional climate modeling with the quantitative assessment of uncertainty plays a decisive role in the quality simulation of eco-hydrology processes in the Heihe River Basin (HRB). The proposed research project aims to improve high resolution Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS) for Heihe River Basin（RIEMS-Heihe） based on dataset of the existing observation and remote sensing provided by the Environmental and Ecological Science Data Center for West China, National Natural Science Foundation of China. We will attempt to improve ability of regional climate model (RIEMS-Heihe) to simulate regional climate in the HRB, in especially precipitation. Then, in order to obtain future high temporal- spatial resolution regional climate data under the RCP 4.5 scenarios in the period of 2020-2070, we will carry out dynamical downscaling using the RIEMS-Heihe and statistical downscaling for the multiple GCM’s outputs from CMIP5 under the RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. We will attempt to develop Bayes theory and method of integrated prediction to reduce uncertainties of downscaling results of regional climate simulation and prediction in the HRB and enhance the credibility of prediction in the period of 2020-2070 in the regions. Finally, datasets of high quality and high temporal-spatial regional climate in the period of 1980-2010 and 2020-2070 under RCP 4.5 scenarios will be provided to the key project of the integrated eco-hydrological process study over HRB and to drive the integrated model which coupled ecological, hydrological and socio-economic processes. It is science foundation for the integrated model of watershed eco-hydrology and the decision support system...

英文关键词： Heihe River Basin;future climate scenarios;uncertainty;high resolution;simulation of regional climate