基于网络行为的消费者信心指数构建及应用研究

项目名称： 基于网络行为的消费者信心指数构建及应用研究

项目编号： No.71203218

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 孙毅

作者单位： 中国科学院大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 在"调结构、扩内需"的政策背景下，扩大居民消费是应对国际经济压力、保障国内经济增长的关键举措。目前监测消费形势的重要指标- - 消费者信心指数的编制仍然以抽样调查为主，存在样本量小、代表性差、统计周期长、随机干扰较多、难以反映突发事件影响等不足。国外最新研究表明，基于网络行为数据构建的消费者信心指数可以有效弥补抽样调查法的不足。基于这一思想，本课题拟利用网络搜索数据和用户情绪倾向数据构建准确、及时、代表性更强的消费者信心指数，重点探讨：（1）网络行为与消费者信心的关联机理；（2）基于网络行为的消费者信心指数构建，包括指数成分确定、核心关键词选择、情绪特征挖掘以及指数的合成等；（3）基于网络行为的消费者信心指数对原有研究结论的修正与完善以及在消费政策评估、消费结构监测等新领域的应用研究。该研究视角和方法均具有创新性，相关成果也将为市场主体决策提供了新的依据。

中文关键词： 大数据；网络行为分析；消费者信心指数；消费者物价指数；量化交易

英文摘要： On the policy background of "adjusting economic structure, expanding domestic demand ", expanding household consumption has become a key measure to relieve international economic pressures and promote domestic economic growth. At present, the data of establishing CCI(consumer confidence index), which is an important indicator for monitoring the consumption situation, mainly comes from sample survey, therefore this index exist some deficiencies, such as small sample size, poor representation, lag of data acquisition, numerous random disturbances, and insensitive to incidents. However, the latest studies have shown that the new way of establishing CCI by considering network behavior data would effectively compensate for the deficiencies of the traditional sample survey method. Based on this perspective, this research intends to establish a more accurate, timely and representative CCI by combining web search data with users' emotional tendency data, and focuses on three points: (1) the correlation mechanism of network behavior and consumer confidence; (2) the establishment of CCI based on network behavior, including determining the components of the new index, selecting the core keywords, mining the emotional characteristics and composite of the index; (3) the application study of the new CCI, including the r

英文关键词： big data；network behavior analysis；consumer confidence index；consumer price index；quantitative trade