智能电网运营风险元扰动与传递理论模型及其应用

项目名称： 智能电网运营风险元扰动与传递理论模型及其应用

项目编号： No.71271084

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李存斌

作者单位： 华北电力大学

项目金额： 55万元

中文摘要： 本项目立足于智能电网运营风险管理高度，针对智能电网风险管理已有研究中大量基于静态、定性的分析，缺乏从动态和定量角度进行研究的理论模型，提出了包括智能电网运营风险元扰动、风险元TPL三维量化模型（传递维度、可能性维度、损失维度）、风险元传递路径（链式、层式、网络式、混沌式等）、风险元传递方法及模型的研究思路。将智能电网运营看作一个大系统，本着系统的"分解- - 综合"研究思路，首先对智能电网运营系统进行分解，分别建立各参与主体的风险元体系，然后单独研究各参与主体的风险元特征及三维量化特性；在此基础上，从系统视角分析智能电网运营的动态过程，研究风险元扰动机理，并分析参与主体的各个风险元之间的传递特性，建立风险元传递模型。进而探究智能电网运营中的风险控制策略。同时基于较为通用、便于推广应用的模型及求解算法提出一套智能电网运营风险管理体系。经过本项目的研究，可以丰富和完善智能电网风险管理理论方法体

中文关键词： 智能电网；电力风险；风险管理；风险元传递；

英文摘要： This project is established in the smart grid operational risk management. Although there have been a lot of research in this area, most of these work is based on static and qualitative analysis and only a few of them is based on dynamic and quantify analysis. This research is focus on the risk element(RE) disturbance, RE TPL(Transmission-Probability-Lost) quantication, RE transmission paths and RE transmission models in the smart grid operating system. In this work, the smart grid operating system is regarded as a large system. Based on the "decompose-composite" method. Firstly, the system is decomposed into three or more subsystems, the REs hierarchy structures are built for each subsystems. Further more, the TPL quantication and characters of main REs are figured out. At last, the system dynamics theory is used to explore the risk diturbance, and some RE transmission models are set up for these REs existing in the smart gird operating system. Base on the analysis above, risk analysis and controlling policy can be figured out as well. This work can enrich and supplement the risk management theory and methods in operating of smart grid.

英文关键词： Smart grid；Power risk；Risk management；Risk element transmission；