房地产市场中群体投机行为演化机理及其政策仿真研究

项目名称： 房地产市场中群体投机行为演化机理及其政策仿真研究

项目编号： No.71203044

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 邱枫

作者单位： 哈尔滨工业大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 针对我国公共政策领域的复杂性现实，特别是实际政策执行过程中政策目标与政策结果的非一致性，典型的表现在我国房地产调控政策的差强人意。本项研究采用基于主体建模这一对复杂系统更具解释力的研究方法，在对房地产市场中投机主体进行行为研究和规则封装的基础上，构建基于中国情境的房地产群体投机行为演化仿真模型。在这一模型中，不同于传统的投机主体的同质化假设，将市场中各类投机主体及其异质禀赋属性、政策和其他外生影响因素引入理论框架，抽象和封装投机主体间、投机主体与环境间以及投机主体进化的规则，尝试解析投机主体的适应性和群体投机系统的复杂性两个关键科学问题。并且基于上述演化理论和仿真模型，对房地产调控政策进行效果仿真，为我国房地产市场调控政策的有效性建立一种类似于平行系统的仿真支持。

中文关键词： 调控政策；互动性；复杂性；投机行为；仿真模型

英文摘要： Due to the complexity of public policy, it is difficult to ensure the efficacy of one policy conform with its original objective. Especially, it is still unclear how effective the regulatory policies on the modulation of the real estate. The present project analyzes the speculative agents behaviors in the real estate market and abstracts their rules to build a simulation model of collective speculation in Chinese culture scenario using agent-based modeling(ABM) approach which has strong ability to explain complex system. As the traditional homogeneous agent hypothesis is not capable to predict the emergence of event in a complex system, the heterogeneous speculative agent property, as a result, and other pertinent factors are introduced into the present research frame. Two key points are aimed to be answered. The first one is to address the adaptability of speculative agent and the complexity of collective speculation through analyzing the following three rules: interactive rules between speculative agent and circumstance variable such as regulation policy, interactive rules among speculative agents, and evolution rules of speculative agent behavior. The second one is to simulate the effect of real estate regulatory policies to improve its effects based on our simulation model.

英文关键词： regulatory policy；interactive；complexity；speculative；simulation model