基础设施项目风险的动态管理方法：考虑利益相关者风险态度及风险相互影响

项目名称： 基础设施项目风险的动态管理方法：考虑利益相关者风险态度及风险相互影响

项目编号： No.71272088

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 王家远

作者单位： 深圳大学

项目金额： 55万元

中文摘要： 基础设施项目由于投资巨大、利益相关者多、建设周期长及技术复杂等原因，所面临的风险管理问题也较一般建设项目更为复杂。已有研究显示，主要利益相关者的风险态度对基础设施项目风险管理有较大影响，但目前对这种影响仍缺乏系统和深入的研究，同时，前人学者往往以静态的视角对风险进行孤立探讨，忽视了风险的相互作用关系及其在项目实施过程中不断变化的特点，这在相当程度上限制了理论成果的合理性与适用性。本课题拟提出一种基础设施建设项目风险的动态管理方法，具体地，在风险识别和分担时充分考虑利益相关者风险态度，并基于利益相关者风险态度和其风险应对能力建立风险管理能力评估模型，同时，在风险评估与应对时借助系统动力学方法构建相应的仿真模型，利用深圳地铁项目开展实证研究，对风险相互影响的作用机理进行深入分析。研究成果不仅能充实现有项目风险管理理论，也能有效地提升基础设施项目生命周期各阶段风险管理的成效。

中文关键词： 基础设施项目；风险管理；系统动力学；风险态度；风险相互影响

英文摘要： It is generally acknowledged that development of infrastructure projects would require huge amounts of investments, involve numerous project stakeholders, take a long period of construction duration, as well as apply various complicated technologies, which leads to the higher complexity of risk management compared with that in the generally perceived construction projects. It is thus critical to effectively manage the risks involved in the life-cycle of infrastructure projects. It is determined by existing literature that project stakeholders' risk attitudes can affect the overall effectiveness of risk management of infrastructure projects largely, but the previous studies fail to investigate the risk attitudes systematically. Further, although risks are dynamics and they are interacted during the life-cycle of infrastructure projects, previous studies tend to identify and examine the risks from the independent and static perspectives, which to a large extent limits the reasonability and applicability of the research findings. This research aims to address the above research gaps through presenting an approach for managing risks of infrastructure projects from a dynamic point of view. Specifically, the project stakeholders' risk attitudes are thoroughly examined when identifying and allocating risks. A Risk Mana

英文关键词： Infrastructure projects；Risk management；System dynamics；Risk attitude；Risk interaction