基于数据场与云模型的水灾风险区划理论与方法

项目名称： 基于数据场与云模型的水灾风险区划理论与方法

项目编号： No.40801213

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 金属学与金属工艺

项目作者： 田玉刚

作者单位： 中国地质大学（武汉）

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 近年来，水灾频发，损失十分严重。本项目针对当前水灾风险区划过程中空间尺度、区划等级概念的粒度、原始数据的不确定性等方面存在的问题，尝试将不确定性人工智能模型- - 数据场与云模型引入水灾风险区划领域，研究不确定性水灾风险区划的新理论和方法。根据水灾风险区划的过程，提出了部分偏好信息条件下的水灾灾情指标定权法；对致灾因子- - 汛期暴雨的时空特征进行了分析；提出了基于象限法和灰色关联法的水灾灾情等级评估方法；提出了基于熵权和云模型的区域水灾综合易损性评价方法；建立了基于历史水灾灾情数据的风险等级评估方法与流程；提出了基于数据场和阈值法的水灾风险等级评估方法以及基于数据场和云模型的水灾风险等级评估方法。最后，研发了区域水灾风险评估系统软件。为了验证上述方法的合理性及有效性，本项目选取洞庭湖地区、上海和苏州地区、长三角地区及淮河流域作为研究区域。结果表明，以上方法能有效的对水灾风险等级进行区划，其中数据场与云模型相结合能较好地处理水灾风险评价过程中存在的不确定性。

中文关键词： 云模型；数据场；水灾；风险评估

英文摘要： In recent years, the flood occurs frequently and the loss is very serious. Aiming at solving some problems in the process of flood risk zoning, such as space scale, the particle scale of zoning grade concept and the uncertainty of original data, This project has attempted to introduce the uncertainty artificial intelligence model named data field and cloud model to the flood risk zoning.Therefore, some work has been done. Firstly,the determination of disaster index weighty based on partial information preference was proposed. Scondly,the spatial and temporal features of the rainstorms in flood seasons were analyzed.Thirdly,the quadrant method and grey association method were combined to evaluate the grade of flood losses.Forthly,The entropy weighty and cloud model were applied into assessing the comprehensive vulnerability of flood.Fifthly,the flood risk was assessed by historical disaster data.Sixthly,the data field and threshold method were combined to analyze the flood risk level.Seventhly,the data field and cloud model were combined to analyze the flood risk level. Finally,the regional flood risk assessment system software was developed. In order to verify the validity and rationality of the methods above,Dongting lake area, Shanghai and Suzhou area, the Yangtze River delta and the Huaihe river basin were selected as the study area. The results showed that using the methods above could assess the flood risk effectively and the combination method of data field and cloud model could express the uncertainty of flood risk assessment well.

英文关键词： cloud model; dada field; flood；risk assessment