中国原油成品油的市场化改革：基于价格形成复杂过程的能源CGE模型研究

项目名称： 中国原油成品油的市场化改革：基于价格形成复杂过程的能源CGE模型研究

项目编号： No.71203062

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 肖皓

作者单位： 湖南大学

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 原油成品油价格市场化改革是当前中国的现实热点问题，对能源市场的培育与发展，对经济系统的可持续发展具有重要影响。能源CGE模型被广泛应用于能源价格波动，财税体制改革等研究，然而其所依赖的零利润条件的供需均衡的一般均衡假设，与现实中国原油成品油价格形成过程表现的复杂特征差异较大，模拟评估结果可能存在偏误。基于此，项目构建2007-2020年细分13种能源产品的动态CGE模型，（1）从能源价格的替代关系、原油成品油企业的微观行为、政府对价格的控制、市场准入的控制以及税费行为，价格的跨期粘性等进行建模，刻画原油成品油价格形成的复杂性；（2）基于模拟结果，提出考虑价格特征的能耗分解和价格指数分解模块，捕捉价格形成过程和传导带来的结构变化；（3）基于短期、中期、长期目标，设置原油成品油市场化渐进式改革的五阶段模拟场景，在国际原油价格上涨和波动的背景下，利用上述方法综合评估对能源市场及其经济系统的影响。

中文关键词： 能源价格；CGE模型；结构分解；价格传导；碳排放

英文摘要： Market-oriented reform of crude oil and refined oil is China's current hot issue, which has a significant impact on cultivation and development of energy market and sustainable development of economic system. Energy CGE model has been widely applied in many researches like energy price fluctuations and reform on fiscal taxation system. However, the general equilibrium assumption, zero profit condition and equalization of supply and demand, which is the basis of CGE model, is greatly inconsistent with the complex process in price formation of crude oil and refined oil in Chinese reality, so the simulation results based on it might have some biased error. In view of this reason above, this project constructs 2007-2020 dynamic CGE model with the disaggregated 13 type of energy products. Firstly, the model, which blends into many ingredients like the substitution of energy price, the micro behavior of crude oil and refined oil company, the control of government on price and market access, tax and charges, and the inter-temporal price stickiness, portrays their price formation complexity. Secondly, the energy consumption and price index decomposition modules with price feature are present based on the simulation results to capture the structure change through price formation and transition. At last, the simulation sc

英文关键词： Energy price；CGE model；structural decomposition；price transmission；carbon emission