东亚-西太平洋夏季风季节内与年际尺度变率的调制作用及其对季风可预测性的影响

项目名称： 东亚-西太平洋夏季风季节内与年际尺度变率的调制作用及其对季风可预测性的影响

项目编号： No.41305057

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 刘向文

作者单位： 国家气候中心

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 季风季节内变率（ISV）和年际变率（IAV）的调制对短期气候异常及其可预测性有重要影响，但目前研究对两种不同尺度变率的调制方式及可能影响的认识存在很大争议，而且已有工作大多局限于对南亚季风在有关问题上的定性认识。鉴于这种情况，本项目以东亚-西太平洋夏季风为研究对象，首先从动力学上对夏季风ISV和IAV的调制作用进行定量诊断，并探讨其与外源变化的关系，进而结合观测分析和模式预测试验考查ISV和IAV不同调制作用对季节气候可预测性的影响；同时，项目将对比国家气候中心第二代季节气候预测模式和欧洲ENSEMBLES计划的季节回报试验结果，探讨ISV和IAV不同调制作用下的季节气候可预测性对模式的依赖程度。本研究有助于我们更好的认识东亚-西太平洋夏季风多尺度变率间的相互关联，并为更全面理解东亚季风气候的季节可预测性提供一定参考。

中文关键词： 东亚-西太平洋夏季风；平均动能；季节内尺度扰动动能；相互作用；可预测性

英文摘要： The modulation between intraseasonal variability (ISV) and interannual variability (IAV) of monsoon plays an important part in anomaly and its predictability of short-range climate, but modulating method of these two different scales and possible influences of the modulation remain controversial issues, and previous studies mainly narrow their interests to qualitative analyses on the related problems about South Asian monsoon. In this project, focusing on the East Asian-Western Pacific summer monsoon, we will quantitatively diagnose the interaction between ISV and IAV of monsoon from the dynamical point of view, and then explore its relation with external forcings. Further, the impacts of different interactions on seasonal climate predictability will be examined by observational analyses and modeling experiments. Also, based on a comparison between the seasonal reforecast experiments from the second-generation seasonal forecast model of National Climate Center and similar results from the models in European ENSEMBLES project, the model dependence of seasonal predictability under different modulations between ISV and IAV are examined. This study will promote our awareness of the conncections among multi-sclale variations of the East Asian-Western Pacific summer monsoon, and provide some references for us to fully

英文关键词： East Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon；mean kinetic energy；intraseasonal disturbance kinetic energy；interaction；predictability