中国东部夏季雨型与影响因子关系的年代际变化及预测模型新建

项目名称： 中国东部夏季雨型与影响因子关系的年代际变化及预测模型新建

项目编号： No.41505061

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 赵俊虎

作者单位： 国家气候中心

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 目前气候模式和统计诊断方法对我国夏季大尺度雨带的跨季度预测能力仍然不高，构建和改进适合气候变暖背景下的预测模型迫在眉睫。本项目以中国东部地区夏季三类雨型的预测模型的新建为主要目标，研究全球变暖背景下中国东部地区夏季雨带多时、空尺度的变化和异常特征、成因和物理机制。首先，从探讨和检测中国东部地区夏季三类雨型与其主要影响因子之间年际关系和年代际的转变入手，对已发生转变和未发生转变的因子进行归类和分析，联系雨带发生转变和异常的年际和年代际异常的原因，分析物理机制；进而，探索和揭露中国东部地区夏季三类雨型新的可能的预测信号及其影响的途径；最后，将数理统计诊断方法和数值模式技术相结合，重新构建一个适合全球变暖背景、具有物理机制且有较高正确率的三类雨型预测模型，解释一些我国夏季雨型变异有关的科学问题，并提出关键技术和方法，完善我国东部地区夏季雨型预测的理论、技术和方法。

中文关键词： 短期气候预测；三类雨型；影响因子；年代际变化；预测模型

英文摘要： Construction and improvement of the prediction model, which is suitable for the climate warming, are in the particular command due to the shortage of the climate models and statistical diagnosis methods for the prediction of large scale rainbelt in China. This project aims at building the prediction model of the three patterns of summer rainfall in eastern China based on the investigations of the multi-time-scale and multi-space-scale changes, the abnormal characteristics and the mechanisms related to the summer rainbelt in eastern China under global warming. Three parts of work will be carried out in this project. First, the factors related to the three patterns of summer rainfall in eastern China will be classified according to the inter-annual and decadal changes of these factors. Then the analysis will be performed on the classified factors to figure out the reasons and mechanisms of the abnormal changes of summer-rain belt in eastern China. Second, the new possible predictors for the three patterns of summer rainfall in eastern China will be extracted based on the above analysis, and the impacts of these new predictors on the three patterns of summer rainfall in eastern China will be further investigated to expose the pathway of these factors in controlling the variations of the three patterns of summer rainfall in eastern China. Third, a new model for the prediction of the three patterns of summer rainfall in eastern China will be built based on the combination of the diagnostic methods of mathematical statistics with the numerical model technology. This model will have physical mechanism and higher accuracy, and is suitable for the background of global warming. In addition, some related scientific problems about the inter-annual and decadal variations of summer rain-belt in eastern China could be explained to some extent based on this model, which can promote the developments of the theory, technology and method of the summer rainfall prediction in eastern China.

英文关键词： short-term climate prediction;three patterns of summer rainfall;impact factors ; interdecadal variation;prediction model