中国进口增长及其对国内经济发展促进作用研究

项目名称： 中国进口增长及其对国内经济发展促进作用研究

项目编号： No.71473020

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 魏浩

作者单位： 北京师范大学

项目金额： 56万元

中文摘要： 近年来，货物贸易进口规模日益增加是中国对外贸易领域的一个重大变化，引起了国内外政府界、学术界的高度关注。弄清楚中国进口增长的基本态势、进口影响国内经济发展的路径与效应等问题，是国家政府制定有效应对战略的基础，也是急需解决的重大学术理论问题。首先，在已有理论研究的基础上，本课题立足中国的现实，归纳总结进口影响国内经济的路径与机制，纳入中国典型事实，对已有的理论模型进行拓展。其次，利用新的方法，构建科学的进口商品结构分析框架，对中国进口商品结构、进口增长模式等问题进行研究；再者，构建计量模型，运用企业层面、产品层面等大样本数据，利用前沿的计量方法，对进口增长的各种经济效应进行实证分析；最后；针对我国进口存在的问题，结合实证研究的结果，提出新的政策建议，提高货物贸易进口对国内经济发展的促进作用。

中文关键词： 进口规模；进口商品结构；理论模型；经济效应

英文摘要： Recent years, one of the greatest changes in China's foreign trade has been the steady growth of the commodity imports, which has earned highly attention of governments and academicians in China. Figuring out the basic trend of China's import growth and the effect of import influencing domestic economic development, is the base for the government to formulate effective strategies, and a significant academic theoretical problem which needs to be solved. Firstly, based on the current theoretical researches, this project summarizes the route and effect of import influencing domestic economic development, brings in China's typical facts and deepens the current theoretical model. Secondly, this project utilizes new methods to construct new analytical framework for import commodity structure and researches on questions, such as China's import commodity structure, the pattern of import growth and etc. Thirdly, using data at the level of enterprise and product, this project construct econometric model and analyzes on the overall national welfare effect, regional economic growth effect, regional technological spillover effect, business productivity effect and industrial development mode transition effect of import growth. Finally, aiming at the existing import problems and combining with the result of empirical analysis, this project brings out new policy suggestions to fulfill the new situation of enlarging import scale, optimizing import commodity structure and promoting domestic economic development.

英文关键词： Import scale;Import commodity structure;Theoretical model;Economic effect