国家食物安全预测预警和发展战略研究

项目名称： 国家食物安全预测预警和发展战略研究

项目编号： No.71333013

项目类型： 重点项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 黄季焜

作者单位： 北京大学

项目金额： 280万元

中文摘要： 全球食物安全正成为世界关注的议题，确保国家食物安全更是我政府工作的重中之重。本研究总体目标是在分析主要因素对食物安全影响机理的基础上，建立国家食物安全预测预警系统，研究并提出保障食物安全的短期应对策略和中长期发展战略。研究围绕食物安全中的需求、供给和价格以及预测预警模型的关键科学问题，设置如下研究内容：1）分析食物消费演变和主要驱动力对食物需求的影响，揭示我国食物需求演变规律；2）分析农业生产主要驱动力及其影响，揭示我国农产品供给及其演变规律；3）分析农产品价格形成和传导机制，揭示食品价格变动趋势和波动规律；4）建立食物安全评价指标体系和预测预警模型，为国家食物安全政策研究提供分析工具；5）预测在不同情景下的食物安全状况与警情，提出保障国家食物安全的战略选择，为中央制定相关政策提供决策依据。项目将在食物安全形成机理及主要驱动力的影响、食物安全研究方法、政策模拟与决策支持等方面有重要创新。

中文关键词： 食物安全;预测；;；预警；;模型;；发展战略

英文摘要： There is an increasing concern on global as well as China’s food security. Ensuring national food security is one of primary goals of China’s national policies. Overall goals of this project are to examine mechanisms of and quantify major factors affecting food security in China, develop a national food security projection and early warning system, and analyze and propose appropriate short run policy response and long run development strategy to improve China’s food security. To achieve these goals, the project will focus on food demand, supply and price as well as modeling of food security and has the following 5 specific objectives: 1) to analyze food consumption pattern changes and major factors affecting these changes; 2) to analyze changing trends of major driving forces of agricultural production and their effects on agricultural commodity supply; 3) to examine individual commodity price formation from farm gate to retail, and price transmission at border, among regions, and between commodities; 4) to develop a set of food security indicators and an integrated analytical tool for projections and early warning of food supply, demand and price; and 5) to evaluate food security and emergence in China under different scenarios and provide policy recommendations for decision makers to ensure the nation’s food security. Major innovations of this study include a better understanding of China’s food security and major driving forces, developing an integrated tool for food security analysis, and simulating food demand and supply as well as prices under various scenarios and their policy implications.

英文关键词： Food security;projection;early warning;model;development strategy