区域碳减排的中低收入人群社会福利影响及适应对策

项目名称： 区域碳减排的中低收入人群社会福利影响及适应对策

项目编号： No.41271551

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 孙翊

作者单位： 中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 本项目的基本逻辑认为应对气候变化的碳减排过程显然会对敏感脆弱的中低收入群体的综合福利带来负面影响，而该群体的稳定和可持续发展将直接关系国家的维稳工作。由于区域分异的普遍存在，减排的中低收入群体影响这个问题更加紧迫和复杂，必须提前开展相关政策储备。项目总体目标是通过建立区域碳减排对中低收入群体影响的综合政策模拟平台，模拟分区域产业减排政策的中低收入群体响应，以及改善该群体社会福利的分类财税补偿政策，提出面向区域分异的中低收入群体减排适应对策和区域管治模式，最终形成保障减排过程中低收入群体社会福利的政策储备，为中国保持长期稳定和谐提供必要的科学支撑。具体任务包括：1，区域碳减排影响的动态省级多区域CGE模型建模；2，社会福利收入阶层分配的可计算Diamond模型；3，区域碳减排对收入阶层影响的集成政策模拟平台；4，中国区域碳减排对中低收入群体影响的控制对策模拟。

中文关键词： 气候变化；碳减排；云计算系统；多区域经济分析；社会福利影响

英文摘要： The basic logic of this project is that carbon reduction process responding to climate change would obviously bring negative impact to low and medium-income groups' general welfare. These groups' stability and sustainable development, however, have a direct relationship with a country's work of maintaining stability. Because of the widespread regional differentiation, the impact to low and medium-income groups would be more urgent and complex. As a result, we must carry out a relevant reserve of policies in advance. The project's overall objectives are to simulate low and medium-income groups' responses to carbon reduction policies of sub-regional industries and to improve the classified tax compensation policies to these groups' social welfare by establishing a simulation platform which could show the impacts to the low and medium-income groups from regional carbon reduction policies. What's more, the project will come up with strategies helping low and medium-income groups to adapt to regional differentiation and a regional governance model. At last the reserve of policies to protect low and medium-income groups' social welfare during the carbon reduction process will be put up and provide the necessary scientific support for China to maintain long-term stability and harmony. The specific tasks include: 1. est

英文关键词： climate change；carbon abatement；cloud computing system；multi-regional economics；social welfare analysis