建立和优化中国人2型糖尿病发病预警模型

项目名称： 建立和优化中国人2型糖尿病发病预警模型

项目编号： No.81202273

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 预防医学、地方病学、职业病学、放射医学

项目作者： 陈蕾

作者单位： 上海交通大学

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 2型糖尿病已经成为我国主要公共卫生问题之一，然而强有力数据表明2型糖尿病是可预测和可预防的。糖调节受损个体通常被认为将来发生糖尿病的风险增加。然而在群体水平实施口服葡萄糖耐量试验筛查糖调节受损个体并不实用，同时此项方法并未考虑其他的糖尿病合并危险因素。迄今多个国家已经制定了一系列基于自我评估因素、生物学测量因素甚至遗传标志物的糖尿病发病风险预测模型。然而，这些风险模型是建立在具备不同危险因素谱和种族的特定人群中，在中国人群中的实用性和适用性值得商榷。因此，建立高效可推广的中国人2型糖尿病发病预警模型对于有效和高效防治糖尿病极为关键。本研究将充分利用上海多个社区建立的糖尿病队列研究资料，建立适用于中国自然人群的评估糖尿病发病风险的简易和复杂预测模型，制定由自我评估因素构建的简易评分量表，确立经济有效的序贯筛查流程，为糖尿病发病高风险人群的早期检出和早期防治提供经济实用的筛查手段。

中文关键词： 2型糖尿病；风险；预测；筛查流程；中国人

英文摘要： Type 2 diabetes has become one of the major public health challenges in China. There is strong evidence that type 2 diabetes is predictable and preventable. People with impaired glucose regulation are usually considered to have a high risk for future diabetes. However, using the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) to identify individuals with impaired glucose regulation is impractical at the population level. In addition, the use of the OGTT to identify high-risk individuals does not consider other risk factors associated with the development of incident type 2 diabetes. A number of risk scores for predicting incident diabetes, based on self-assessed information, biological measures and even genetic markers, have been derived from different ethnicities. However, the validity and applicability of these tools to the Chinese population is questionable since they were derived from circumscribed populations with different risk factor profiles and ethnicities. Therefore, development of efficient and validated tools for predicting risk of incident type 2 diabetes in the Chinese population is critical for the most effective and efficient prevention. Using data from diabetes cohort studies conducted in Shanghai communities, this study is going to develop simple and advanced risk prediction tools for incident type 2 diabet

英文关键词： type 2 diabetes；risk；prediction；screening strategy；Chinese