价格波动环境中库存管理行为偏差的规律、成因与对策

项目名称： 价格波动环境中库存管理行为偏差的规律、成因与对策

项目编号： No.71201134

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学与工程

项目作者： 耿维

作者单位： 西南交通大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 库存管理是企业管理及物流与供应链管理的重要工作，也是企业应对订货价格波动这一常见经济现象的重要手段。现有库存理论基于决策者完全理性这一假设开展研究，以最大化利润或最小化成本为目标获得最优策略。实证研究表明，企业的库存管理实践往往偏离这种最优策略，即出现决策行为偏差。在订货价格波动环境中，这种偏差尤为显著，但目前对其缺乏充分研究。本项目通过设计和开展库存管理实验，总结并分析价格波动环境中库存管理行为偏差的规律，进而基于展望理论中的S形效用建立数学模型以解释这种偏差的成因，并在此基础上相应地设计应对措施以减轻甚至纠正这种行为偏差。本项目的研究工作可以为企业改善在订货价格波动环境中的库存管理绩效提供理论上的支持和管理上的启示。

中文关键词： 有限理性；报童问题；展望理论；契约协调；

英文摘要： Inventory management is one of the most important tasks for managers who operate enterprises. Effective inventory management provides advantage for the enterprise, especially when purchasing price is fluctuating. Up to now, the theory of inventory management is basically developed on the rationality assumption of decision makers, in which the optimal inventory policies are obtained towards the objectives of maximizing profit or minimizing cost in most cases. However, empirical studies find that inventory management in practice hardly follows what the theoretical optimal policies predict, i.e., there exists significant behavioral bias. Such bias is remarkable if the purchasing price is fluctuating. We are going to first design and conduct laboratory experiments to observe the phenomenon of the behavioral bias in inventory management with price fluctuation. A mathematical model based on S-shaped utility from Prospect Theory is next going to be developed to explain the observed behavioral bias. And we are going to design some mechanisms to alleviate such bias subsequently. The aforementioned results could be applied to improve the enterprises' performances when purchasing price is fluctuating.

英文关键词： Bounded rationality；Newsvendor；Prospect theory；Contract coordination；