三峡库区生态安全后续发展动态模拟及其可视化预警评价

项目名称： 三峡库区生态安全后续发展动态模拟及其可视化预警评价

项目编号： No.41201546

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 官冬杰

作者单位： 重庆交通大学

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 本项目立足地学前缘，紧扣国家和地方社会经济发展与生态建设的需求目标，以三峡库区后续发展过程中生态安全敏感区域为研究对象，在研究三峡库区脆弱生态环境与三峡大坝安全运行关系的基础上，从制约三峡库区生态安全后续发展过程中的胁迫因子（影响因子）及作用机理入手，基于GIS技术和系统动力学原理等综合研究思路和方法，建立系统动力学模型，并对其不同建设规划方案进行动态情景模拟，选择生态安全后续发展过程中最优化的发展模式，并对其后续发展过程存在的主要生态安全问题进行预警评价，建立可视化系统，提出相应的预警信息和调控途径，期望能为三峡工程安全运行和充分发挥效益，实现经济社会持续发展提供科学依据和指导。

中文关键词： 三峡库区；生态安全；系统动力学；预警；

英文摘要： Keeping insights into frontiers of geosciences and great requirements of social economy development and ecological construction, it is of great academic significance to put emphasis in sensitive area of ecological safety during follow-up development of Three Gorges reservoir. This research elucidates the mutual interaction between vulnerable eco-environment in Three Gorges reservoir and safe running of Three Gorges dam, and analyzes the stress factors and influence mechanism hampering the follow-up development of ecological safety with the theories of GIS technology and System Dynamics (SD) model, in order to establish an advanced SD model. Additionally, dynamic scenario simulation is conducted towards several designed construction programs.The aim is to determine an optimized mode for follow-up development of ecological safety. Moreover,a visual early warning evaluation system is established to investigate primary ecological safety issues occurred during the follow-up development for proposing more scientific early warning information and tuning approaches. Foreseeably, the research is beneficial to safe running of Three Gorges project and efficient realization of its contribution. The proposal can also provide scientific basis and instruction for the sustainable development of economic society.

英文关键词： Three Gorges Reservoir；Ecological safety；System dynamic；Early warning；