国际贸易与环境：因果效应、机制及对策研究

项目名称： 国际贸易与环境：因果效应、机制及对策研究

项目编号： No.71503281

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 林发勤

作者单位： 中央财经大学

项目金额： 18万元

中文摘要： 贸易对环境有怎样的影响呢？理论和实证还没有给出统一的答案。因此，本项目首先将构造波罗的海干货指数、汇率冲击和经济增长冲击等新型工具变量, 利用淮河南北供暖的差别策略和断点回归、非参数匹配、异方差识别等方法来研究贸易对环境的因果影响并进行误差分解。使用跨国和我国省市县、企业等数据对上述因果关系进行定量研究。我们将使用多种环境和贸易开放指标，前者如排放数据二氧化硫(碳)、氮氧化物 、生化需氧量、工业废气(固体废弃物、废水), 大气中悬浮微粒量、PM2.5、PM10、空气污染指数、能见度、清洁水资源和来源于卫星的大气气溶胶光学厚度等指标; 后者如贸易依存度、开放广度(深度)和关税减让等对贸易如何影响环境提供有效和稳健的经验证据; 其次, 我们还将通过建立适当的理论框架和实证策略进行机制上的探索；再次，我们将在理论和实证分析基础上，进行对策研究, 提出合理的政策建议。

中文关键词： 国际贸易；环境；因果效应；机制分析；对策研究

英文摘要： What is the impact of trade that may have on the environment? The literature so far, both theoretical and empirical, are generally inconclusive. Firstly, this project creates new instruments such as trade cost based on Baltic Dry Index, exchange rate shock variable, economic growth shock, makes use of the different heating policy across Huai River in China and techniques such as regression discontinuity, nonparametric matching and the identification through heteroskedasticity to estimate the causal effect between international trade and environmental quality and decompose the estimation errors. We use cross country data, Chinese province, city and county level and micro firm level data to quantify the above causal effect. We will use various measures for environment quality and trade openness, the former such as emissions of sulfur dioxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides (such as nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), industrial waste gas, solid waste and waste water intensities, at the same time we also use total suspended particulates (TSPs), particulate matter 2.5, particulate matter 10, air pollution index (API), visibility, fresh water access and the aerosol optical depth (AOD) derived from satellites, etc. as environmental quality indexes, and the latter such as trade GDP ratio, openness extensive margin, intensive margin and tariff reduction, etc. to investigate how international trade affects environment by offering effective and robust evidence empirically. Secondly, we will build theoretical framework and empirical techniques to analyze the mechanisms linking the causal relations. Thirdly, we will do the relevant countermeasures research and raise appropriate policy recommendations based on both the theoretical and empirical analyses.

英文关键词： International trdae;Environment ;Causal effect;Mechanism analysis ;Countermeasure research