民用航空器近距尾流风险的量化评估与可视化建模方法研究

项目名称： 民用航空器近距尾流风险的量化评估与可视化建模方法研究

项目编号： No.U1333131

项目类型： 联合基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 无线电电子学、电信技术

项目作者： 徐浩军

作者单位： 中国人民解放军空军工程大学

项目金额： 36万元

中文摘要： 近距尾流遭遇情形下的飞行风险是民用航空器运行过程中面临的一个重要问题。目前国内对尾流问题研究不足，没有系统的尾流风险预测与规避方法。项目以民用航空器近距尾流情形下的飞行风险为研究对象，采用人-机-环复杂系统仿真与风险评估方法相结合的手段，基于多元极值理论对尾流遭遇情形下的风险概率进行评估；并构建可视化的尾流风险概率三维拓扑结构图，在此基础上对尾流风险规避技术、近距起降引导技术、尾流飞行安全智能导引技术进行研究。项目拟在高可靠性近距尾流模型的构建、数值模拟与飞行仿真的结合、尾流风险的定量评估和可视化建模三方面有所突破和创新。通过研究可以获得更多的适航性、安全性先验知识来指导起飞着陆阶段、近距飞行阶段的安全保障工作。从理论上可以提出一套基于建模仿真的尾流遭遇风险评估的新方法；从实践上可为如何应对尾流风险提供技术支持，为尾流事故预防提供科学的分析和检验依据，有助于提高我国民用航空器的安全性。

中文关键词： 飞行风险；尾流遭遇情形；多元极值Copula模型；风险的概率拓扑结构；可视化建模

英文摘要： Flight risk during close wake encountering is an important issue facing civil aviation, however there aren’t scientific wake prevention and avoidance means and systematic wake risk assessment system in our nation until now. So in this project we study the risk when a plane encountering wake vortex. We intend to develop the means of combining complex system simulation and risk assessment, evaluate the probability of the risk in the wake encounter case based on multivariate extreme value theory, build 3D topology diagram of risk probability. Then we can study wake risk aversion technology, taking off and landing guidance technology, flight safety smart guide technology. In this project, we expect to get breakthroughs and achieve innovation through the studying of wake mechanism, the combining of numerical simulation and flight simulation, and the assessing of wake risk combined with virtual reality technology. Based on the work mentioned above, we can further understand risk mechanism during close wake encountering, and propose new methods of virtual risk assessment based on modeling and simulation. At the same time, we can provide technical support for the wake risk aversion, and the scientific analysis and testing basis for the wake accident prevention, this can help to improve the level of civil aviation safety

英文关键词： flight risk；wake encountering；multivariate extreme Copula model；risk probability topology；visual modeling