基于灰数信息的决策模型及其在黄河冰凌灾害风险管理中的应用研究

项目名称： 基于灰数信息的决策模型及其在黄河冰凌灾害风险管理中的应用研究

项目编号： No.71271086

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 罗党

作者单位： 华北水利水电大学

项目金额： 55万元

中文摘要： 针对灰色决策理论主要侧重于研究白化值决策建模而忽略灰数决策建模基础理论体系构建的不足，以面向冰凌灾害风险管理的多层次多阶段风险型群决策以及动态规划建模问题为研究对象，在灰数信息下研究经典灰色决策模型、风险型群决策模型、动态规划模型及其建模机理、特性、建模的适用条件，在此基础上建立基于智能算法的灰色综合决策模型的集成系统，以适应各种复杂的实际决策环境，并对模型进行多方位拓展和优化。针对黄河宁蒙段冰凌灾害防治以及下游滩区防洪水利工程方案的优选与决策等复杂问题，研究冰凌及其洪水灾害风险形成机理和影响因素，结合实际区域资料以及冰凌灾害数据具有"部分信息已知、部分信息未知"的"小样本、贫信息"灰色不确定性特征，将所构建的灰数决策模型应用于冰凌灾害风险管理问题中，提出具有实际意义的区域冰凌灾害风险管理综合评价和优化决策模型与方法。

中文关键词： 灰数信息；决策模型；灰色系统理论；黄河冰凌灾害；灾害风险管理

英文摘要： To eliminate the shortcoming in present grey decision-making theory, which mainly focuses on modeling with whitening value and neglects basic theoretical system on modeling with grey numbers, this research studies multi-level and multi-stage risk group decision modeling and dynamic programming modeling issues in ice flood disaster risk management. A series of decision-making models, including classic grey decision-making models, risk-type group decision-making models, grey dynamic programming models and their modeling mechanisms, characteristics and applicable conditions, are explored. On this basis, intelligent algorithms are employed to construct an integrated system of grey comprehensive decision-making models, and furthermore the above models are extended to more fields so as to adapt to complex decision environments. In order to prevent and cure ice and flood disasters in Ningmeng stage of Yellow River, to optimize and select decision-making schemes of flood control projects in lower reaches of Yellow River, and to look into the shaping mechanism and influence factors of ice and flood risks, the decision-making models with grey numbers are applied to ice and flood risk management issues. By using actual data as well as considering grey uncertain characteristics of ice and flood disaster data, where "some i

英文关键词： Grey number information；Decision-making model；Grey system theory；Yellow River ice disaster；Disaster risk management