生态农业区域规模化经营模式反馈分析与动态仿真理论应用研究

项目名称： 生态农业区域规模化经营模式反馈分析与动态仿真理论应用研究

项目编号： No.71461010

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 王翠霞

作者单位： 江西财经大学

项目金额： 36万元

中文摘要： 生态农业是我国现代农业的发展方向，现代农业的适度规模经营在我国已经形成共识，具体发展模式、实现路径等仍处于不断探索中。本课题基于团队已有的养种循环生态农业研究积累，用系统动力学反馈仿真分析理论、流率基本入树建模法、反馈环行列式算法与演化博弈理论、微分方程理论相结合，理论研究与基地建设相结合，进行企业与农户合作的生态农业区域规模化经营模式的合理规模及发展路径研究、农户有机生产选择行为的博弈分析与协调策略生成研究、反馈环顶点反馈度计算分析方法研究、反馈结构主导极性转移规律研究、管理策略生成及实施效应的仿真模型建立及动态仿真评价研究，创建生态农业区域规模化经营典型基地，实现典型基地建设与理论创新研究的反馈互促。本研究可为系统动态复杂性反馈分析提供反馈环顶点反馈度分析、反馈结构主导极性转移规律分析两个新方法，为生态农业规模化经营提供典型模式和协调管理策略，对我国现代农业发展具有理论和应用价值。

中文关键词： 生态农业；区域规模化经营模式；养种循环；反馈分析；动态仿真

英文摘要： Ecological agriculture is the development direction of China's modern agriculture. The appropriate scale agricultural operation in China has formed a consensus, but the specific development mode and paths are still in the process of exploration. This project plans to study on the regional scale operation mode of eco-agriculture and the new method of feedback analysis of dynamic complexity, based on the accumulation of team's study on eco-agriculture of breeding and planting circulation, with the system dynamics theory, the SD rate variable fundamental in-tree modeling approach, branch-vector determinant or matrix algorithm to feedback loops calculation, evolutionary game theory, and the theory of differential equations, via the combination of theoretical research and bases construction. We plan to conduct: study on designing the development path of regional eco-agricultural operation mode; the game analysis of farmers' organic production choice behavior to generate the coordination strategies; study on a new method of feedback degree calculating and analysis of feedback loop vertexes; study on the transfer rule of feedback structure's dominated polar; study on management strategies generation and simulation study on evaluation of the effect of the strategies; create typical bases of regional scale operation mode of breeding and planting cycle ecological agriculture. The project can provide two new dynamic complexity analysis approaches, typical patterns and management strategies for eco-agricultural scale operation. Thus this project has the theoretical and practical value for the development of China modern agriculture.

英文关键词： Ecological agriculture;regional scale operation mode;breeding and planting circulation;feedback analysis;dynamic simulation