手足口病气象、社会经济和人口学危险因素研究

项目名称： 手足口病气象、社会经济和人口学危险因素研究

项目编号： No.81473064

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 医药、卫生

项目作者： 郝元涛

作者单位： 中山大学

项目金额： 70万元

中文摘要： 手足口病（Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease, HFMD）自2008年在安徽阜阳大规模爆发以来，已成为威胁中国儿童健康的重大公共卫生问题。本研究拟在前期的工作基础上，通过文献研究和专家咨询的方法，全面构建影响儿童手足口病人群发病的气象、社会经济和人口学危险因素框架，建立包含长期时间序列的手足口病发病人数及其潜在危险因素的数据库。进而拟通过Lasso算法对影响手足口病发生的危险因素进行初筛，识别与发病率相关性最密切的预测变量，分别构建分布滞后非线性模型、空间面板数据模型和贝叶斯时空模型，探讨不同模型的拟合效果和预测能力，从时间、空间和时空结合等维度，定量研究手足口病发病与危险因素之间的关系，明确影响手足口病发生的气象、社会经济和人口学等危险因素，为手足口病的预防和控制提供科学决策的依据。

中文关键词： 数据挖掘；手足口病；危险因素；Lasso算法；统计模型

英文摘要： Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has posed a great threat to the health of children and become a public health priority in China since the major outbreak in Fuyang City, Anhui Province in 2008. Based on our previous work, this study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for examining meteorological, socio-economic and demographic risk factors of HFMD in the method of literature research and expert consultation, and establish a long-term time series database comprising datasets of HFMD case numbers and potential risk factors in China. Furthermore, predictors that are most associated with the occurrence of HFMD will be preliminarily identified with Lasso algorithm in this project. Then the distributed lag non-linear models, spatial panel data models and Bayesian spatial-temporal models will be built. With the fitting goodness and prediction capabilities being assessed, those finally selected models will facilitate the quantitative evaluation of the relationship between risk factors and the occurrence of HFMD, spatially, temporally, and spatial-temporally, and will contribute to the identification of meteorological, socio-economic and demographic risk factors of HFMD, which are believed to provide a scientific basis for decision making in HFMD prevention and control.

英文关键词： Data mining;HFMD;Risk factors;Lasso algorithm;Statistical models