肾综合征出血热环境、媒介生物危险因素的研究及预警模型的建立

项目名称： 肾综合征出血热环境、媒介生物危险因素的研究及预警模型的建立

项目编号： No.81202254

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 预防医学、地方病学、职业病学、放射医学

项目作者： 吴伟

作者单位： 中国医科大学

项目金额： 23万元

中文摘要： 我国是受肾综合征出血热危害最严重的国家，发病数占世界报道病例总数的90%以上。其中，辽宁省的疫情尤为严重，在2004年发病水平达到历史最高水平，并首次超过出血热疫情高发省的标准。在疾病 监测的基础上，对肾综合征出血热疫情进行科学可靠的预测预报，对于高发地区有针对性地采取灭鼠和疫苗接种措施，对肾综合征出血热的科学防控具有重要的指导意义。本研究主要对辽宁省的肾综合征出血热使用地理信息系统进行空间相关数据的管理，建立辽宁省肾综合征出血热地理信息数据库，并分析周围环境和媒介生物与肾综合征出血热发生的关系，探索肾综合征出血热的病因及各种危险因素。利用相关危险因素及空间数据构建广义回归神经网络预警模型，为肾综合征出血热的预测预报、 控制计划的制定、控制效果的评价等方面提供科学的决策依据。

中文关键词： 肾综合征出血热；地理信息系统；神经网络；预测；

英文摘要： China is one of the most seriously country affected by hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. The incidence of reported cases accounts for more than 90% of the world. And the epidemic situation is particularly serious in Liaoning Province among the countries. The morbidity level reached the highest level in history in 2004, and overtook the high provincial standard of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome for the first time. To conduct scientific and reliable forecast and to take targeted measures of rodent and vaccination for high-risk areas based on disease surveillance has important guiding significance for scientific control and prevention of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. In this study, we will manage the spatial data of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome with geographic information system and establish geographic information system database of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in liaoning province. Meanwhile, we will analyze the relationship between environment and biological vectors and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome to explore etiology and risk factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. And we will use the related risk factors and spatial data to construct generalized regression neural network prediction model to provide scientific basis of decision making for prediction, con

英文关键词： hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome；geographic information system；neural network；forecast；