区域用水行为对水资源管理政策的响应机制与动态调控

项目名称： 区域用水行为对水资源管理政策的响应机制与动态调控

项目编号： No.51479119

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 王宗志

作者单位： 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院

项目金额： 84万元

中文摘要： 模拟解析区域用水行为对水资源管理政策的响应机制，协同调控水资源管理政策、用水行为与国民经济发展的关系，是在当前中国全面实施最严格水资源管理制度背景下区域经济社会发展中普遍面临与亟待解答的关键科学问题。项目从识别驱动区域用水需求变化的关键因子入手，考虑用水主体的环境适应性及主体间协商、竞争和复杂层次结构特征，构建基于多智能体的区域用水行为模拟模型，解析政策环境与用水、排污及其变化的响应关系；从编制考虑用水和排污水平的社会核算矩阵表入手，构建基于可计算一般均衡理论的产业结构适应性调控模型，探析用水结构与国民经济结构的作用机理；在此基础上构建集因子诊断、情景设计、用水行为模拟与产业结构适应性调控于一体的水资源管理政策模拟与调控的理论、方法与应用模式。本研究将促进水利科学与管理学、经济学与系统科学的交叉融合与集成发展，推动区域最严格水资源管理制度的落实、考核及该制度下用水结构、产业结构的科学安排。

中文关键词： 水资源管理；政策模拟；用水行为；智能计算；优化控制

英文摘要： The problems how to simulate and analyze the response mechanism and movement process of regional water-use behavior for water resource management policy and then to coordinate the relationship between the water resource management policy, regional water use behavior and the national economic development is the current key scientific problems in the economic and social development in a region which need to be answered urgently. Firstly the project identify the key factors driving the change of regional water demand, and then build regional water use behavior simulation model based on multi-agent method by considering the water user adaptability to environment, and the negotiation, competition and hierarchical structure among the water users, aiming at analyzing the policy environment, change of water consumption efficiency and water pollutant discharge and theirs response relationship. Secondly, from the preparation of the regional social accounting matrix form considering the level of regional water use and sewage, we construct the adaptive regulation model of industrial structure based on the theory of computable general equilibrium, in order to analysis of the mechanism between water structure and national economy structure in a region. Thirdly, we set up the theoretical framework and method system and application pattern of water resources management policy simulation and regulation by the integration of diagnosis, scene design, policy simulation and industrial structure adaptive regulation. This research can promote cross fusion and integrated development of water conservancy science and management science, economics, intelligence science, system science on one hand, help the implementation and evaluation of the regional most strict water resources management system, and also promote the scientific arrangement of water use structure and industrial structure.

英文关键词： water resources management;policy simulation;water use behavior;intelligence computation;optimal control