工程决策中业主乐观偏差的形成、测度及其影响研究

项目名称： 工程决策中业主乐观偏差的形成、测度及其影响研究

项目编号： No.71471082

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 王雪荣

作者单位： 南京审计大学

项目金额： 62万元

中文摘要： 乐观偏差（optimistic bias）是指决策者在决策时可能会过度相信自己能力，认为自己对未来有足够准确的判断，因此会低估潜在的风险与问题的复杂性。针对工程决策中，业主的乐观偏差可能会低估工程风险与不确定性，高估收益而造成工程超支、工期延误、工程综合绩效预期偏高等工程问题，本研究：从动态决策视角，运用实证、数理分析和计算实验相结合的方法，研究工程决策中业主乐观偏差的影响与测度方法；基于乐观偏差心理学概念- - -个体行为- - -群体行为- - -组织行为- - -工程管理绩效的行为过程，深入探索业主乐观偏差影响工程决策的内在机理；并在此基础上，分析业主乐观偏差对工程决策与对工程利益相关者行为的影响，揭示业主乐观偏差影响的关键影响因素，研究业主乐观偏差情境下的工程管理策略。期待通过本项目的研究，为我国工程界准确估算工程造价、工期与效益以及风险防范提供理论支撑和决策参考。

中文关键词： 乐观偏差；工程决策；计算实验；行为管理；决策影响

英文摘要： The optimism bias (also known as unrealistic or comparative optimism) is a bias that causes peoples to be overly confident when they making decisions. Those with optimistic bias usually believe that they have the sufficiently accurate forecasting for the future, and thus, may underestimate the potential risk and complexity of the problems. This project focuses on the owner' optimism bias in the mega-project that causes owners to underestimate the project risk and uncertainty, and overestimate the output, which in turn results in the cost overrun, schedule delay, and the overestimate of the general project performance. From the dynamic perspective, this project- - by using the empirical study, analysis and computational experiments- investigates the effect of the proprietors' optimism bias, and proposes the efficient method to measure the optimistic bias. Based on the behavioral process of the optimistic bias-i.e., psychology concept-individual behavior-group behavior- organization behavior-project performance, this project further examines the inner mechanism by which the proprietors' optimism bias affects the project decision-making, and moreover, analyzes the effect of the optimism bias on the project stakeholders. This project intends to disclose the crucial factors that affect the proprietors' optimism bias and give the managerial insights for the project management. Through the study of this project, we expect to present the theoretical supports and decision references for the project managers in China, by which they can accurately estimate the cost, schedule and performance and prevent the potential risk.

英文关键词： Optimism bias;project decision-making;computational experiments;behavioral management;decisions effects