嵌入多信源的灰色Verhulst拓展预测模型及其应用研究

项目名称： 嵌入多信源的灰色Verhulst拓展预测模型及其应用研究

项目编号： No.71301060

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 崔杰

作者单位： 淮阴工学院

项目金额： 20.5万元

中文摘要： 针对现有灰色Verhulst预测模型存在建模精度不高问题，由系统内外信源（因素）综合集成的角度，以嵌入多信源灰色Verhulst拓展模型及其优化研究为主线，借鉴已有灰色Verhulst模型研究成果，采用灰色累加生成法、最小二乘法、微积分法、矩阵条件数法、线性变换法、案例研究等方法对嵌入多信源灰色Verhulst拓展模型的建模参数算法设计、模型参数优化、模型参数特性、模型在高速路网交通事故预测中的应用等问题进行深入研究。项目研究成果对提高灰色Verhulst预测方法建模精度、完善和发展灰色预测理论具有重要意义。项目以案例分析揭示高速路网交通事故的短期演化规律，建立一种可靠的高速路网交通事故预测分析平台，可为交管部门作出高效的交通安全控制决策提供科学依据和理论支持。

中文关键词： 灰色系统理论；灰色预测模型；新灰色verhulst模型；交通管理；

英文摘要： With regard to the no-high modeling accuracy of existing grey verhulst model, from the point of view integrating inside and outside sources (factors) of a system, this project regards developping extended multi-source grey verhulst model and its optimization as a main research line, utilizes existing grey verhulst model research results, uses grey accumulation generation method, least square method, differential and integral calculus method, matrix condition number method, linear transformation method and case study method and other methods to perform an in-depth study of algorithm design of embed many source grey verhulst modeling parameters, optimization of this model parameter, parameter characteristics of this model, and application of this novel model in accident prediction with new traffic regulation background.Project research results has important significance in enhancing grey verhulst prediction method modeling accuracy, improving and developping grey forecasting theory.The project is expected to reveal an evolution law of area traffic accident in short-term, and establish a highly efficient t analysis platform for traffic accident forecasting of high-speed network by a case analysis.It will provide a scientific basis and theoretical support for traffic management department to make an efficient decis

英文关键词： grey systems theory；grey prediction modle；novel grey verhulst model；traiifc management；