项目名称: 基于低碳经济的能源价格体系动态优化理论与实证研究
项目编号: No.71273089
项目类型: 面上项目
立项/批准年度: 2013
项目学科: 管理科学
项目作者: 何永秀
作者单位: 华北电力大学
项目金额: 53万元
中文摘要: 为了应对气候变化给人类环境带来的巨大挑战,我国提出了到2020年努力实现单位GDP二氧化碳排放强度比2005年下降40%-45%的目标,而能源价格改革是实现该目标的关键。能源价格结构受多种因素影响,基于解释结构模型与计量经济模型,系统研究影响能源价格结构的因素及影响机理、能源价格间的影响机理;基于用户特性分析、行为学理论和统计调查方法,对各类用户对能源价格的承受能力、响应行为进行分析建模;对实现低碳经济的目标进行分析,基于社会-经济-环境多目标及各种可能的约束条件建立能源价格体系动态优化模型,并进一步建立能源价格动态CGE模型,进行能源价格社会-经济-环境模拟系统开发与情景模拟分析,并综合运用投入产出法、国际比较法分析不同能源价格体系情景下对社会、经济、环境的动态影响机理,基于影响机理分析,结合不同的发展阶段对能源价格体系进行动态优化设计,对相关政策改革进行研究,提出能源价格政策改革建议。
中文关键词: 能源价格;低碳经济;减排;动态优化;模拟现实
英文摘要: In order to cope with the enormous challenge that climate change brings to the human environment, China has proposed the target that the emission intensity of carbon dioxide per unit GDP in 2020 will decreased by 40% - 45% compared to 2005, and the energy price reform is the key to achieving this goal. Energy price structure is affected by many factors. Based on the interpretative structural model and econometric model, the project will systematically study the factors and mechanism that impacted of energy price structure, and the impact mechanism among energy prices. Based on the analysis of user characteristics, behavior theory and statistical investigation methods, it will model the affordability and response behavior of all types of users on energy prices, and predict the dynamic change of the future. Then it will establish a low-carbon economy evaluation model, and analyze the target to achieve low carbon economy. Based on the energy - society - economy - environment, multi-objective and a variety of possible constraints, it will establish a dynamic optimization model of energy price system and further develop an energy price dynamic CGE simulation model, a energy prices social - economic - environmental simulation system,make scenario simulation analysis, and then integrating the methods of input-output, i
英文关键词: energy price;low carbon economy;emission reduction;dynamic optimization;ESR