基于共同传染特征的动物布鲁氏菌病动力学模型研究

项目名称： 基于共同传染特征的动物布鲁氏菌病动力学模型研究

项目编号： No.11426208

项目类型： 专项基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 侯强

作者单位： 中北大学

项目金额： 3万元

中文摘要： 动力学模型虽然在人间和畜间传染病的研究中已经被广泛应用，但动力学模型用在布鲁氏菌病传播的研究中仍然很少见。布鲁氏菌病传播的共同特征是通过接触潜伏和染病个体传染，或者通过摄取环境中的布鲁氏菌传染，而且处于潜伏状态的动物通过血清学检测是很难发现的，这些是动物布鲁氏菌病传播非常重要的风险因素。本项目基于布病传播的上述特征，建立一个一般的SEIB(易感种群-潜伏种群-染病种群-布鲁氏菌)传播动力学模型，研究模型的分岔等动力学性态,从染病个体的补充率和移出率之间关系给出动力系统稳定、出现分岔的临界条件；在上述研究的基础上，建立多斑块迁移和具有防控措施的传播动力学模型，通过研究模型的动力学性态,给出并模拟种群迁移和防控措施对布病流行的影响。该项目的研究内容在国内外很少涉及，研究成果可以丰富传染病动力学研究方法，为应用性研究提供理论基础。

中文关键词： 布鲁氏菌病；时滞模型；稳定性；基本再生数；防控措施

英文摘要： Dynamics models have been widely applied to the researches of human and animal infectious diseases, but it is still rarely used in the study of brucellosis transmission. The common characteristics of brucellosis transmission is that infection can be achieved with exposure to exposed and infected animals, or via ingestion brucella in the environment, and that the exposed animals are difficult to be found through serological test, which are the important risk factors for the spread of animal brucellosis. Based on the above characteristics of brucellosis transmission, this project will propose a general SEIB (susceptible-exposed-infectious –brucella in environment) dynamics model, study the bifurcation of the model and other dynamical behaviors, and give the critical conditions of the dynamic system stability and bifurcation from the relationship between the recruitment rate and the removal rate of infected individuals; on the basis of the above research, dynamics models including patch migration and prevention and control measures are proposed, respectively, by studying dynamical behaviors of the models, we evaluate and simulate the impact of migration and control measures on brucellosis prevalence. The research involved in the project is rare at home and abroad, the results obtained can enrich approaches to infec

英文关键词： Brucellosis；Delayed model；Stability；Basic reproduction number；Prevention and control measures