能源革命下区域电力供需系统时空协同演化机理与承载力分析理论研究

项目名称： 能源革命下区域电力供需系统时空协同演化机理与承载力分析理论研究

项目编号： No.71501071

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 刘金朋

作者单位： 华北电力大学

项目金额： 18.5万元

中文摘要： 能源革命已经成为解决能源与环境协调发展、推动节能减排的国家重要发展战略，电力作为其中重要组成部分，基于区域发展与控制差别化分析的重要性，深入开展复杂环境下区域电力供需系统演化机理与承载力分析具有一定的理论与应用价值。本项目首先构建考虑能源革命与节能减排的区域电力供需系统时空协同演化机理仿真分析模型，引入系统动力学等理论揭示系统结构内在关系及演化规律。其次结合构建的仿真分析系统结构与参数，提出复杂环境下区域电力供需系统发展预测分析模型，引入智能预测及拟境分析等理论揭示系统结构发展趋势。然后考虑资源环境、排放与安全等要素构建多重约束下区域电力供需系统承载力分析模型，引入综合评价及多目标决策等理论揭示系统发展的稳定性。最后结合仿真-预测-承载力分析，引入碳排放分解预测、能源矩等理论提出系统优化发展路径。为科学制定区域电力供需系统节能减排目标、优化系统发展的科学性及稳定性提供理论依据。

中文关键词： 区域电力供需系统；时空协同；演化机理；承载力分析；预测与评价

英文摘要： The energy revolution has become the national development strategy for solving the coordinated development of energy and environment, promoting energy-saving and emission-reduction. And Electric power is one of the most crucial part of energy revolution and energy-saving and emission-reduction. It is of theoretical and practical value to analyze the evolution mechanism and bearing capacity of regional power supply and demand system under complex environment, based on the significance of differentiation analysis of regional development and control.. In the first place, the simulation model of time-space coordination evolution mechanism is built for regional power supply and demand in the project, considering energy revolution and energy-saving and emission-reduction. And the theory of system dynamics is introduced to reveal the internal relation and changing law of the system structure.. In the next place, combined with the structure and parameter of the simulation system established, a forecasting analysis model of regional power supply and demand development under complex environment is given, and theories of smart forecasting and scenario analysis are also introduced to uncover the changing tendency of system structure.. In the third place, the bearing capacity of regional power supply and demand system is built under multi-constraint of resource and environment, emission control, safety support, and theories of comprehensive evaluation and multi-objective decision are introduced to explain the stability of system development.. Finally, combined with the simulation-prediction-analysis of bearing capacity, the optimization development path of the system of regional power supply and demand is given under the theory of carbon emissions decomposition- control analysis and energy bureau. . The project will provide theoretical and practical reference not only for scientifically draw up the energy-saving and emission-reduction mission for the regional power supply and demand system, but optimizing its scientificalness and stability.

英文关键词： Regional power supply and demand system;time-space coordination;evolution mechanism;bearing capacity analysis;forecasting and evaluation