黄河悬河段城市洪灾过程模拟及风险动态评估研究——以开封市为例

项目名称： 黄河悬河段城市洪灾过程模拟及风险动态评估研究——以开封市为例

项目编号： No.U1204403

项目类型： 联合基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 地理学

项目作者： 赵庆良

作者单位： 河南大学

项目金额： 32万元

中文摘要： 黄河自古以来就是善淤、善决、善徙的多灾河流。近年来，黄河下游悬河段面临十分严峻的洪灾决溢风险，据相关研究开封河段是未来50年内黄河下游决溢改道潜在危险的重点河段之一。本研究以开封市为实证区，综合运用水动力学模型与地理信息系统耦合；分析黄河悬河段城市洪灾系统结构特征及洪灾风险演变规律；运用MIKE模型进行溃堤分析和城市洪水演进动态模拟，考虑泥沙淤积的影响，采用HEC6模型进行输沙演算，建立洪灾风险动态模拟模型；采用情景分析技术，分析洪灾风险动因响应关系；构建洪灾风险动态评估方法和程序，对洪灾风险进行区划，提出风险管理策略；这不仅可以丰富城市洪灾过程与风险评估基本理论，而且还为开封市及其它沿黄城市制定城市发展规划和防洪减灾应急管理提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 城市洪灾；风险评估；情景分析；水动力学模型；地理信息系统

英文摘要： The Yellow River is well-known for its disastrous features due to serious sedimentation, easy dyke-failure, and frequent migration. In recent years, the lower Yellow River is facing high flooding risk due to the increase of extreme weather events and natural disasters. The hanging river near Kaifeng is one of potential sections with high risks of dyke-breakage and flooding. Therefore, this study is taking Kaifeng City as a case study. It aims to investigate the characteristics of flooding system and its evolution in urban areas along the hanging Yellow River by combining hydrodynamic models and GIS/RS technology. It will simulate the potential dyke-failure and the dynamic advancing process of urban flood with MIKE model. To integrate the impact of sedimentation, HEC6 model will be used to calculate the sediment transport. Based on these simulations, a dynamic model for flood risk assessment will be established. With the scenario analysis technique, the response of future flood risk and dynamic assessment of flood risk along the lower Yellow River will be analyzed. The assessment method and procedures for flood risk will be constructed and the flood risk zoning will be made for better flood risk management. This project will implement the multi-disciplinary method and integrate the technology to simulate the u

英文关键词： urban flood；risk assessment；scenario analysis；hydrodynamic model；geographic information system