基于盲源-变点分析的光伏微网变流器疲劳损伤随机过程特性与剩余寿命在线预测研究

项目名称： 基于盲源-变点分析的光伏微网变流器疲劳损伤随机过程特性与剩余寿命在线预测研究

项目编号： No.51477040

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 电工技术

项目作者： 唐圣学

作者单位： 河北工业大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 变流器可靠性是制约光伏微网应用发展的主要障碍，低费用、无破坏性在线实现剩余寿命预测是变流器可靠性研究的难点和热点。项目以光伏微网为应用背景，探索变流器疲劳损伤信息微弱性、多源混叠性问题以及损伤过程突变性问题的解决方法，发掘疲劳损伤累积随机过程特性，建立新的剩余寿命在线预测理论与方法。主要内容包括：1)引入盲源分析技术，研究疲劳损伤累积信息的盲源分析模型、损伤信息提取与分离算法，解决疲劳损伤微弱信息的检测问题与多源异质信息的分离问题；2)引入变点分析技术，研究疲劳损伤累积增量过程的变点检测模型、检测算法设计和评估，发现疲劳损伤累积历程中变点属性，进而研究全寿命周期的疲劳损伤累积增量随机过程特性，建立疲劳损伤累积增量随机过程模型；3）研究基于随机过程特性（变点属性）的在线剩余寿命预测方法。研究成果能促进变流器可靠性技术发展，为变流器视情维护提供技术支持，促进光伏微网应用发展。

中文关键词： 光伏微网；变流器；疲劳损伤；寿命预测

英文摘要： The reliability of converters is the main obstacle to improving the applications of photovoltaic micro-grid. The economical and non-destructive online life prediction of converters is one of hotspot and difficulty. On the applications background of photovoltaic micro-grid, this project aims to resolve the problems of the weakness and multi-source aliasing of fatigue damage and the problem of the mutation on the fatigue damage process, explores the stochastic process characters, and proposes a novel online theory and method of the residual life prediction. The contents of this project includes: 1) introduce the technique of the Blind source analysis, and study the Blind source analysis model and the extraction and separation algorithms of the fatigue damage cumulative feature series, to resolve the detection problem of the weak information of cumulative fatigue and separation problems of multi-source information; 2) introduce the technique of the change point analysis, and then study the detection model, design of detection algorithm, and detection evaluation for the change points of the cumulative increment process to reveal the mutation property of the fatigue damage process, explore the stochastic process characters of the fatigue feature cumulative increment and build the stochastic process model; and 3) study the online residual life prediction algorithm for converters based on the property of stochastic process. The investigation results can develop the technique of converter reliability, provide the technical support for the on-condition maintenance of converters, and boost the applications of photovoltaic micro-grid.

英文关键词： photovoltaic micro-grid;converters;fatigue damage;life prediction