Automated recommendations can nowadays be found on many e-commerce platforms, and such recommendations can create substantial value for consumers and providers. Often, however, not all recommendable items have the same profit margin, and providers might thus be tempted to promote items that maximize their profit. In the short run, consumers might accept non-optimal recommendations, but they may lose their trust in the long run. Ultimately, this leads to the problem of designing balanced recommendation strategies, which consider both consumer and provider value and lead to sustained business success. This work proposes a simulation framework based on agent-based modeling designed to help providers explore longitudinal dynamics of different recommendation strategies. In our model, consumer agents receive recommendations from providers, and the perceived quality of the recommendations influences the consumers' trust over time. We design several recommendation strategies which either give more weight on provider profit or on consumer utility. Our simulations show that a hybrid strategy that puts more weight on consumer utility but without ignoring profitability considerations leads to the highest cumulative profit in the long run. This hybrid strategy results in a profit increase of about 20 % compared to pure consumer or profit oriented strategies. We also find that social media can reinforce the observed phenomena. In case when consumers heavily rely on social media, the cumulative profit of the best strategy further increases. To ensure reproducibility and foster future research, we publicly share our flexible simulation framework.
翻译:目前,在许多电子商务平台上可以找到自动化建议,这种建议可以为消费者和供应商带来巨大的价值。然而,通常并非所有建议项目都具有相同的利润幅度,因此供应商可能希望推广能最大限度地增加利润的项目。短期而言,消费者可能接受非最佳建议,但从长远看,他们可能失去信任。最终,这会导致设计平衡的建议战略的问题,既考虑到消费者和供应商的价值,又能带来持续的商业成功。这项工作提议了一个模拟框架,其基础是以代理为基础的模型为基础,旨在帮助供应商探索不同建议战略的纵向动态。在我们的模式中,消费者代理人收到供应商的建议,而认为建议的质量会影响消费者的长期信任度。我们设计了若干建议战略,要么更多地重视供应商的利润或消费者的效用。我们的模拟表明,一种既更重视消费者效用又不忽视利润因素的混合战略,最终会导致最高的累积利润。这种混合战略的结果是,与纯消费者或利润导向的战略相比,利润增加约20 %。我们还发现,社会媒体可以进一步提升所观察到的利润率。当消费者严重依赖公共资本时,我们就可以进一步提升已观察到的利润率。