The draw for the 2022 FIFA World Cup has been organised before the identity of three winners of the play-offs is revealed. Seeding has been based on the FIFA World Ranking released on 31 March 2022 but these three teams have been drawn from the weakest Pot 4. We show that the official seeding policy does not balance the difficulty levels of the groups to the extent possible: a better alternative would have been to assign the placeholders according to the highest-ranked potential winner, similar to the rule used in the UEFA Champions League qualification. Our simulations reinforce that this is the best strategy in general to create balanced groups in the FIFA World Cup.
翻译：2022年国际足联世界杯决赛的决赛在3名决赛获胜者的身份被披露之前就已经安排好了。播种以2022年3月31日发布的国际足联世界排名为基础,但是这3支球队是从最弱小的Pot 4中抽出。 我们表明官方的播种政策无法尽可能平衡各组的难度:更好的替代办法是按照排名最高的潜在赢家,按照排名最高的潜在赢家分配占位者,类似于欧洲足联冠军联盟的资格认证规则。我们的模拟强化了这是在国际足联世界杯中创建均衡团体的最佳战略。
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