Power curves capture the relationship between wind speed and output power for a specific wind turbine. Accurate regression models of this function prove useful in monitoring, maintenance, design, and planning. In practice, however, the measurements do not always correspond to the ideal curve: power curtailments will appear as (additional) functional components. Such multivalued relationships cannot be modelled by conventional regression, and the associated data are usually removed during pre-processing. The current work suggests an alternative method to infer multivalued relationships in curtailed power data. Using a population-based approach, an overlapping mixture of probabilistic regression models is applied to signals recorded from turbines within an operational wind farm. The model is shown to provide an accurate representation of practical power data across the population.
翻译:电曲线可以捕捉风速与特定风力涡轮机输出功率之间的关系。这一功能的精确回归模型在监测、维护、设计和规划方面证明是有用的。但在实践中,测量结果并不总是与理想曲线一致:电压减缩将显示为(额外)功能组成部分。这种多值关系不能以常规回归为模型,相关数据通常在预处理过程中被删除。当前工作提出了一种替代方法,用以推断受限功率数据中的多值关系。使用基于人口的方法,将概率回归模型的重叠组合用于运行中的风力农场内涡轮机所记录的信号。该模型显示能够准确反映整个人口的实际动力数据。