The last two years have been an extraordinary time with the Covid-19 pandemic killing millions, affecting and distressing billions of people worldwide. Authorities took various measures such as turning school and work to remote and prohibiting social relations via curfews. In order to mitigate the negative impact of the epidemics, researchers tried to estimate the future of the pandemic for different scenarios, using forecasting techniques and epidemics simulations on networks. Networks used in these research are either synthetic networks or real networks with limited size and domain specific interactions. Hence, their ability to represent the world is limited. Intending to represent real-life in an urban town in high resolution, we propose a parametric multi-layer undirected weighted network model, where vertices are the individuals of a town that tend to interact locally, and edges represent transmission probability. Each layer corresponds to a different interaction that occurs daily, such as "household", "work" or "school", with their own transmission probability. Our simulations indicate that locking down "friendship" layer has the highest impact in slowing down epidemics. Hence, our contributions are twofold, first we propose a parametric network generator model; second, we run SIR simulations on it and show the impact of layers.
翻译:过去两年是Covid-19大流行造成全世界数百万人丧生、影响和困扰数十亿人的惊人时期。当局采取了各种措施,例如将学校与工作转向偏远地区,并通过宵禁禁止社会关系。为了减轻流行病的负面影响,研究人员试图利用预测技术和网络上的流行病模拟对不同情况的未来作出估计。这些研究中使用的网络是合成网络或实际网络,其规模和具体领域互动有限。因此,他们代表世界的能力是有限的。为了以高分辨率代表城市的真实生活,我们提议了一个参数性多层非定向加权网络模型,在这个模型中,脊椎是倾向于在当地互动的城镇个体,边缘代表传播概率。每个层都对应每天发生的不同互动,如“住家”、“工作”或“学校”及其自己的传播概率。我们的模拟表明,锁定“朋友”层在减缓流行病方面影响最大。因此,我们首先提出一个参数性网络发电机模型;第二,我们运行SIR模拟层,并展示其影响。